The Cincinnati Bengals and Miami Dolphins square off in an ugly Week 16 contest with significant 2020 NFL Draft order implications. If the Bengals lose, they secure the No. 1 pick. If the Dolphins lose, they move into a stronger position for a top three pick.
The Bengals opened as a one-point underdog at DraftKings Sportsbook, but the line has swung considerably this week. The Bengals are now a 1.5-point favorite at Miami. The Dolphins stink, but it’s crazy how much line movement we’ve seen in an otherwise bad football game.
ESPN’s research team came up with an interesting stat if you’re looking to bet on this game. The favorite in recent matchups between two teams with 10 losses has dominated to the tune of 9-2 against the spread and 10-1 straight up.
Great nugget from @MackNova on Bengals (-1) at Dolphins:— Ben Fawkes (@BFawkesESPN) December 22, 2019
In the last 10 seasons, when two teams with at least 10 losses entering the game square off, the favorite is 9-2 ATS and 10-1 outright.
These two teams are a combined 4-24 on the season, but they have been pretty money against the spread. The Bengals are 5-8-1 ATS while the Dolphins are 7-7. That combines for 12-15-1, which considering how bad they’ve been this season, isn’t too bad.
It’s a difficult pick, but history suggests backing the Bengals.
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