A few weeks ago, we were viewing this Week 17 matchup as a potential division title game. But things change quickly in the NFL, and following two losses, the Titans are now fighting for the final Wild Card spot. They have the simplest path to the postseason, with a win-and-you’re-in scenario. But while the Texans have already clinched the AFC South, they could steal the third seed from the Chiefs if Kansas City loses to Los Angeles. Fortunately for Houston (and bettors), that game will be played before this Titans/Texans battle.
If the Texans decide to rest their starters due to having no incentive, this should be an easy win for the Titans, regardless of being on the road. Deshaun Watson (DFS salary $6,700) is banged up and may sit in any scenario, giving the starting spot to AJ McCarron ($5,000), which is why the Titans are favored to begin. Tennessee will get their beast of a running back, Derrick Henry ($8,100), back on the field this week after missing last week’s competition against the Saints. He only ran for 86 yards back in Week 15 against the Texans, but this will be a great spot for him to break loose.
The line of this game will likely shift depending on the developments throughout the weekend, and quite possibly even as the one o’clock games play out. Assuming that the Chiefs can put away the Chargers at home, which is a very fair assumption, the Texans should be able to give their stars a rest. I’ll take the Titans to cover -3.5 in this very important season finale.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
Titans at Texans
Point Spread: Texans +3.5
Total Points: 45
Money Line: Titans -182; Texans +160
Overall: Titans 8-7; Texans 10-5
ATS: Titans 7-7-1; Texans 7-7-1
O/U: Titans 9-6; Texans 6-9
Players to watch: WR Adam Humphries (ankle), CB Adoree’ Jackson (foot), WR Kalif Raymond (concussion), WR Corey Davis (concussion), WR Cody Hollister (ankle), LB Daren Bates (shoulder), RB Derrick Henry (hamstring), DT Jeffery Simmons (knee)
Players to watch: WR Will Fuller (groin), WR DeAndre Hopkins (illness), S Jahleel Addae (achilles), LB Jacob Martin (knee), LB Brennan Scarlett (achilles), WR Kenny Stills (knee), T Laremy Tunsil (ankle), QB Deshaun Watson (back), LB Benardrick McKinney (concussion)
- The Titans have won five of their last six games against AFC opponents.
- The Texans have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six day games at NRG Stadium.
- Eight of the Titans’ last nine games have gone OVER the total points line.
Odds and lines subject to change. See website for actual odds.
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