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Laying the points with all the marbles on the line

The 49ers and Seahawks face off in Week 17 with the NFC West on the line. Here’s why I’m laying the points with the road favorite.

Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo and head coach Kyle Shanahan of the San Francisco 49ers shake hands before a preseason game against the Denver Broncos at Broncos Stadium at Mile High on August 19, 2019 in Denver, Colorado. Photo by Justin Edmonds/Getty Images

The San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks square off on Week 17 Sunday Night Football with all the regular season marbles on the line. The winner claims the NFC West and potentially as much as home field advantage. The loser claims the No. 4 seed and will head to Philadelphia or Dallas to take on the NFC East winner in a wild card round game.

The 49ers are a 3.5-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook, although it opened with them installed as 1.5-point favorites. The line moved to 2.5 last Sunday evening, and then climbed to 3.5 shortly after. The point total is installed at 3.5. The 49ers are favored at -182 on the money line, while the Seahawks are underdogs at +160. The 49ers are 8-6-1 against the spread this season, while the Seahawks are 7-7-1 ATS. Both teams have gone over the point total eight times.

Injury Report

Both teams are dealing with significant injuries heading into this one. Seattle lost running backs Chris Carson and C.J. Prosise to season-ending injuries, which resulted in them signing Marshawn Lynch and Robert Turbin. Offensive tackle Duane Brown is expected to miss the game with knee and biceps issues and safety Quandre Diggs is currently sidelined with an ankle injury. Defensive end Jadeveon Clowney is dealing with a core muscle injury, but is expected to play through it.

The 49ers are still without pass rusher Dee Ford, who is dealing with quadricep and hamstring issues. Safety Jaquiski Tartt has been limited this week due to rib injuries, but that is an upgrade over his DNP status the past three weeks.

Pick Against The Spread

This is the first time the 49ers have been a road favorite against the Seahawks since 2011 — before Russell Wilson joined the team. This is one of the worst injury reports Seattle has dealt with in a while, and I think it will catch up with them. I see the 49ers winning this one and getting revenge for Seattle’s win at Levi’s Stadium.

I don’t expect a blowout, but San Francisco covers the number. The Seahawks are a good football team, but they’re not as good as their record would indicate. They rank 15th in net yards per play to the 49ers second and 16th in defensive efficiency to the 49ers second. They have been slightly better on offense, ranking fifth to the 49ers ninth.

Russell Wilson will always remain a concern. He coupled with a returning Jadeveon Clowney gives both sides of the team a weapon that squares me. Wilson has a history of breaking the 49ers heart and last time these two teams met, Clowney was a one-man wrecking crew. I don’t think anybody would be surprised if the Seahawks sprung the upset. However, this looks like a game in which the Seahawks injuries catch up with them and the 49ers get the cover and division title.

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