FINAL SCORE UPDATE: The Dolphins stunned the Patriots 27-24 on a last second touchdown pass from Ryan Fitzpatrick to tight Mike Gesicki. The Dolphins closed as a 15.5 point underdog and get the huge outright upset.
The Dolphins are massive underdogs for the second time this season against the Patriots. When these teams met in Week 2, the Dolphins closed as +18.5 underdogs, a spread the Pats easily covered with the 43-0 win. A lot has changed since then and the Dolphins are a much more competent team than when the Pats last saw in Miami. Ryan Fitzpatrick is averaging 314 passing yards with six touchdowns over his last three games despite the 1-2 record. This is by far his toughest matchup, however, as the Pats allow an average of 191 passing yards and only 11 touchdowns thrown, the lowest total in the league. DeVante Parker, who has been Fitzpatrick’s go-to option, will be drawing very tough coverage from CB Stephon Gilmore, potentially opening up more looks for the likes of Albert Wilson and Allen Hurns. As underdogs, the Dolphins are 8-7 ATS but have covered in this spot in 3 of their last four games.
It’s a bit of an unusual spot for the Patriots, who have yet to clinch a first round bye as of yet. Because of this, they should be deploying all their starters in this game. In the prior matchup, Brady threw for 264 yards and two touchdowns but that offense also included a man by the named of Antonio Browns. The offense has struggled as of late but posted one of their best games against the Bills last week that also saw Brady with a season-high 78.8% completion rate for 271 yards on 33 attempts. The Dolphins won’t provide much resistance in terms of defense either through the air or on the ground, which is a big reason for the massive spread. If the Patriots gain a healthy lead, don’t be surprised if the Pats start to rest some key players, specifically Julian Edelman, who is in desperate need of some time off. As favorites, the Pats are 8-6-1 ATS.
Dolphins at Patriots
Point Spread: Patriots -16
Total Points: 45.5
Money Line: Dolphins +650; Patriots -1000
Overall: Dolphins 4-11; Patriots 12-3
ATS: Dolphins 8-7; Patriots 8-7-1
O/U: Dolphins 8-7; Patriots 6-9
Players to watch:CB Jomal Wiltz (shoulder), LB Jerome Baker (ankle), LB Vince Biegel (elbow), DE Taco Charlton (ankle), WR Allen Hurns (ankle, neck), DT Zach Sieler (ankle, thumb), LB Andrew Van Ginkel (shoulder), DE Christian Wilkins (ankle), RB Chandler Cox (shoulder), QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (right shoulder), WR Isaiah Ford (knee), C Daniel Kilgore (finger), CB Nik Needham (groin), TE Durham Smythe (quadricep)
Players to watch: LB Shilique Calhoun (illness), LB Ja’Whaun Bentley (knee), T Marcus Cannon (ankle), LB Jamie Collins (shoulder), WR Julian Edelman (knee, shoulder), CB Jonathan Jones (groin), CB Jason McCourty (groin)
- The Patriots have won 22 of their last 23 games at Gillette Stadium.
- The Patriots have covered the spread in each of their last seven home games against the Dolphins.
- Five of the Dolphins’ last six games have gone OVER the total points line.
- Sony Michel has scored the first touchdown in three of the Patriots’ last five games against AFC East opponents.
- Julian Edelman has scored at least one touchdown in five of the Patriots’ last six regular season Sunday day games at Gillette Stadium.
- DeVante Parker has scored at least one touchdown in three of the Dolphins’ last four games.
- James White has scored at least one touchdown in three of the Patriots’ last four games against the Dolphins.
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