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How to approach betting on Rockets vs. Spurs

Is the spread in this game too close with James Harden in beast mode? We take a look at how to approach the lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Houston Rockets guard James Harden takes an inside shot while San Antonio Spurs guard Quinndary Weatherspoon defends during the fourth quarter at Toyota Center.  Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports

The Houston Rockets (13-6) head down to San Antonio to take on the Spurs (7-14) on Tuesday night in the NBA. James Harden is coming off a monster 60-point outing against the Atlanta Hawks and is on a warpath. Plus, he was just snubbed for Western Conference Player of the Week, so that narrative is in play. This is normally a marquee matchup, but the Rockets could run away with things early. Let’s take a look at the initial lines on DK Sportsbook and how to approach betting.

Rockets vs. Spurs, spread, over/under, money line

Spread: Spurs (+5.5)
Over/Under: 234
Money line: Rockets (-240), Spurs (+200)

From first glance, this spread is way too short, but this has been the case all season with the Spurs. Books are giving Gregg Popovich too much credit and are overrating the team as a whole. LaMarcus Aldridge may not play and if that’s the case, I can’t see Houston slipping up — even on the road. Gimme the short 5.5 spread on the Rockets in hopes Harden puts them away early.

The O/U also seems a big generous considering how poor the Spurs have been defensively. This seems like a spot where the Rockets shoot the lights out and can reach upward of 120 points. If that’s the case, the pace is up and the Spurs are also averaging 110.9 PPG. I think the over is the way to go tonight as well. I feel confident enough in the Rockets — especially if LMA is out — that goes with them on the ML would also be my play.

Prediction: Rockets 126, Spurs 112

James Harden player prop

Right now, Harden’s O/U for point total is set at 37.5, which is the highest on the slate. He’s also +370 to score the first basket of the game, which actually seems pretty favorable. His points, assists and rebounds combined O/U is at 50.5, so if you think he hits the over on his point total, all he’d need would be 14 combined rebounds and assists, which is in line with his season averages. Harden averages 24 points per game against the Spurs in his career, but this is probably the worst team they’ve had in the last three decades.

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