Damian Lillard, Portland Trail Blazers vs. Phoenix Suns ($8,500) — Lillard’s elite fantasy value is on the back of strong efficiency combined with strong minutes. Lillard’s 24.6 player efficiency rating ranks best among qualified PGs, and he is playing a heavy 37 minutes per game, third most among all players. Lillard takes his team-high 28% usage rate into a good matchup against the Suns, who have allowed the sixth most points to opponents and play an elevated pace, ranking in the top 10 in possessions per game.
Spencer Dinwiddie, Brooklyn Nets at Minnesota Timberwolves ($7,700) —With Kyrie Irving (shoulder) sidelined, Dinwiddie has been forced into heavy volume. Dinwiddie’s 32% usage rate as a starter ranks sixth highest among qualified starters. Dinwiddie takes his elite usage into a good matchup against the Timberwolves, who have allowed the fifth most points to opponents in part due to their fast pace. Both the Nets and Timberwolves rank in the top 10 in possessions per game, making this game a candidate to feature boosted possessions for more opportunities at fantasy scoring. Dinwiddie has created a strong 14 potential assists per start and he carries both point and assist upside in this matchup.
Jimmy Butler, Miami Heat at Washington Wizards ($7,800) — Butler has been excellent in his first season with the Heat, posting a player efficiency rating of 23.5, fifth best among qualified wings. He has been Miami’s top facilitator, creating 12 potential assists per game. Butler’s 25% usage rate also leads the Heat, and he will be in strong position to produce fantasy points against a Wizards team that allows a ton of fantasy points to opponents. The Wizards have allowed the most points per game, most points per possession, second most assists per game and rank as the league’s worst rebounding team by the percentage of missed shots they rebound. Butler will be in excellent position to accumulate points, assists and rebounds in this matchup against the worst defensive team and worst rebounding team in the league.
John Collins, Atlanta Hawks at Orlando Magic $(8,400) — Trae Young (ankle) is out again, which may force Collins into another expanded role on Monday. In the Hawks’ first game without Young on Dec. 28, Collins posted an elite usage rate of 39.5% and took a heavy 26 field goal attempts. The matchup itself isn’t great given the Magic do not allow a lot of points to opponents, but Collins’ potential heavy volume makes him an appealing play regardless. Collins has scored at least 50 DraftKings fantasy points (DKFP) in two of his three games since returning from a suspension.
Bam Adebayo, Miami Heat at Washington Wizards ($7,600) —Adebayo draws an elite matchup against the aforementioned Wizards, who have showcased the league’s worst team defense and worst team rebounding. Washington has allowed the most points per game, most points per possession and ranks last by the percentage of missed shots they rebound. Washington has also been poor at defending the basket, allowing the fourth highest field goal percentage on shots within five feet of the basket, the zone where Adebayo takes most of his shots. In Adebayo’s previous game vs. the Wizards this season, he scored 52 DKFP after grabbing 14 rebounds with 24 points.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is timfinn521) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.