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Breaking down Conference Championship line movement on Wednesday

Finding the value early or late in the week is key for sports bettors. Here’s the full breakdown of the midweek line movement before the conference title games.

Aaron Murray of the Georgia Bulldogs calls a play against the LSU Tigers during the SEC Championship Game at the Georgia Dome on December 3, 2011 in Atlanta, Georgia. Photo by Scott Cunningham/Getty Images

Finding the best value early in the week is crucial to sports betting, but numbers can change for the better or the worst depending on which side you are eyeing up. You could wind up getting better odds after the public goes in on the side you’re not interested in.

The conference title games have seen some early line movements, a few of which have crossed over the key football numbers. Lines via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Pac-12 Championship

Opening line: Utah -4.5

Current line: Utah -6.5

This could have the potential to create a ton of value on Oregon as we get later into the week. If you like the Ducks in this game, it might make sense to wait a couple more days to see if that number can rise to 7, which is obviously one of the key football numbers. If you’re a Utah better, jump on the 6.5 now before it reaches that level.

Big 12 Championship

Opening line: Oklahoma -9.5

Current line: Oklahoma -8

This one is a little surprising. I thought the 9.5 would be the play since it’s not quite at 10 and bettors would like to make sure they take the favorite by less than double digits. Plus, Oklahoma is much more of a big brand name the casual fan is more likely to bet on. This will probably be about where this number settles. Barring any news, I don’t see this getting to 10 or 7

Sun Belt Championship

Opening line: Appalachian State -3.5

Current line: Appalachian State -6.5

Bettors must have been ready for this one because this is the largest line swing of all the conference championship games being played this weekend. If we think that number will continue to rise, get in on Appalachian State before it’s too late and that number gets to 7. If you’re on Louisiana, wait this one out and see if you can hit that key number.

MAC Championship

Opening line: Central Michigan -4.5

Current line: Central Michigan -7

If you were all in on Central Michigan, I hope you got in on this one early because there was tremendous value right out of the gates that is no longer there. This is the tricky part now that the number is sitting at 7. You’ll have to guess either way which way you think this number will go. Will the money come back on Miami (OH) now that it’s up to 7? Will it get even higher for Central Michigan? Guessing the public’s betting habits is half the fun.

Conference USA Championship

Opening line: FAU -7.5

Current line: FAU -7.5

This is the only game this weekend where the number has not moved at all. It’s stuck at 7.5, so if you like UAB to cover this one it would make sense to get in now. However, this number could continue to go up for a decent amount of value on UAB. We will see a lot of casual bettors betting conference championship weekend, and all most people are likely to know is Lane Kiffin is on the sideline for FAU.

AAC Championship

Opening line: Memphis -10

Current line: Memphis -9

This is the most interesting game of the week from a betting perspective because these two teams played each other last week. They had so much fun that they’re doing it all over again. Apparently money is coming in on Cincinnati because it’s moved under double digits, creating more value for Memphis.

SEC Championship

Opening line: LSU -5.5

Current line: LSU -7.5

This line move is probably the most substantial. It went from under a touchdown to even more than a touchdown, so this added a ton of value if you’re thinking Georgia in the SEC title game. Keep in mind, this game is being played in Atlanta, so it could be essentially a home game for the Bulldogs, which is why I like Georgia in this spot.

Mountain West Championship

Opening line: Boise State -15.5

Current line: Boise State -13.5

Boise State’s number slipped to under two touchdowns in their conference title game against Hawaii. If you like the Broncos to cover, hop on the number now before it gets back to 14. If you’re leaning Hawaii, keep checking to see if this number rises at all before hitting it.

Big Ten Championship

Opening line: Ohio State -16.5

Current line: Ohio State -16

Moving from 16.5 to 16 is not all that substantial, and it appears this is likely where the number will stick in the Big Ten title game. I would guess the play would be to go after Ohio State with the better value play at this point just because it’s much more likely this gets to -17 than it does -14.

ACC Championship

Opening line: Clemson -27

Current line: Clemson -28

In the biggest spread by far in the conference title weekend, Clemson rose to a four-touchdown favorite over Virginia. In 10 of the Tigers’ wins this season, they won by 31 or more points, but getting to that 28 was important if you like Virginia to cover. For Clemson bettors, it might make sense to get in on this now before it gets to 28.5.

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