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Laying the points expecting a Mitchell Trubisky regression in Week 14

The Cowboys are scuffling along, but look for a bounce-back in Week 14.

Dallas Cowboys center Travis Frederick, wide receiver Michael Gallup, wide receiver Amari Cooper, quarterback Dak Prescott, and wide receiver Randall Cobb during the game between the Cowboys and the Giants at AT&T Stadium. Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

The Chicago Bears host the Dallas Cowboys in a must-win Thursday Night Football matchup to open Week 14. Both teams sit at 6-6, but they are in slightly different situations. The Cowboys have a one-game lead in the NFC East while the Bears sit two games back of the Vikings in the wild card race. It’s slightly more must-win for Chicago, but huge for both.

The Cowboys are a field goal favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the point total set at 43. Dallas is -157 on the money line, while Chicago is +140. The Cowboys are 7-5 against the spread and have gone over the point total seven times. The Bears are 3-9 ATS and have gone over the point total four times.

Injury report

The Cowboys defense continues on without linebacker Leighton Vander Esch and defensive tackle Antwaun Woods. One addition this week is running back Tony Pollard, who injured his ankle during the practice week. He is questionable.

The big addition to the Bears injury report is cornerback Prince Amukamara with a hamstring injury. He is listed as doubtful, which is problematic against the Cowboys passing attack.

Pick against the spread

This is going to be a tight one, but I think the Cowboys edge out the Bears and at least get the push on the field goal spread. Maybe a 23-20 or 24-20 type of win. Dallas hasn’t impressed in recent weeks, but look for the Amukamara injury to prove especially problematic against a Cowboys passing attack that appears to be getting healthier at a key time.

I’m concerned about the Cowboys pass defense against Mitchell Trubisky, but I’ll bet on some inconsistency from the Bears quarterback. He’s impressed at times, but we’ve seen enough bad stretches that I think it will cost Chicago tonight.

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