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You gotta lay the points with the Patriots when it’s only a field goal at home

The Patriots and Chiefs are well matched for what is a huge, fun AFC matchup in Week 14. Here’s why I’m laying the points.

A man wearing a Tom Brady jersey, left, and a woman wearing a Patrick Mahomes jersey are pictured in the stands before the start of the 2019 AFC Championship Game. Photo by Jim Davis/The Boston Globe via Getty Images

The Kansas City Chiefs and New England Patriots are building up quite the rivalry of late, and it is revisited in Week 14 at Gillette Stadium. The 10-2 Patriots are looking to keep pressure on the Ravens atop the AFC where the two teams are tied. The 8-4 Chiefs are in firm control of the AFC West and now are looking to get a crack at a first round bye.

The Patriots are a field goal favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook and the point total is set at 49. The Patriots are -167 on the money line and the Chiefs are +145. Both teams are 7-5 against the spread. The Patriots have gone over the point total four times while the Chiefs have gone over seven times.

This game marks the sixth matchup between Bill Belichick and Andy Reid as Chiefs head coach. In that stretch, the Patriots are 3-2 straight up, but 2-3 ATS, and all five games have gone over the point total. This marks the third matchup since Patrick Mahomes took over a starting quarterback job. The Patriots are 2-0 SU and 1-1 ATS.

Injury report

The Chiefs backfield is messy with Darrel Williams moved to IR, Damien Williams a continued DNP with a rib injury, and the recent addition of Spencer Ware. The Patriots run defense is weaker than its pass defense, so this is not the most ideal of situations. The upside on the Chiefs report is that Frank Clark seems to be moving along relatively fine from his shoulder injury.

The Patriots biggest injury concern is center Ted Karras. He suffered an MCL sprain and is unlikely to play this weekend. Losing the center is always concerning given the work he does for the offensive line. And yes, I know Tom Brady is listed on the injury report once again. We all know he’ll play

Pick against the spread

This should be a fun one, and I don’t see either side blowing the other out. That being said, if I can get the Patriots laying only a field goal at home, I’m going to jump on it. Sometimes there is some deeper meaning to consider, but this week, we’re just playing the number.

These are two very well matched teams. The Chiefs offense is better than the Patriots by a decent margin, while the Patriots defense is better than the Chiefs by a decent margin. The Chiefs rank fourth in net yards per play and the Patriots rank fifth in that metric, which tries to remove some of the randomness from the assessment. With two teams that are well matched, it’s lay it or don’t play it with the Patriots.

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