Detroit is down to their third string quarterback, which did not make for a pretty sight on Thanksgiving. David Blough found Kenny Golladay on a busted coverage for an easy 75-yard touchdown, but completed just 21 of his remaining 37 passes for 205 yards. The good news is that Blough was aggressive down the field, averaging 9. 2 air yards per attempt. That would rank inside of the top five this season. He also won’t be facing the Bears’ defense every week. The real issue for Detroit is the defense, which ranks 28th in Football Outsiders DVOA. Quarterbacks are averaging 7.7 adjusted net yards per pass attempt against the Lions, fourth-highest in the NFL.
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Minnesota sits just a game back of the Packers right now for the NFC North crown, and hold a 43 point advantage against them in terms of point differential. This team should make a real push down the stretch, and will need to assert its dominance against the Lions to do so. The Vikings are sixth in offensive DVOA behind the stellar play of Kirk Cousins. Only Patrick Mahomes averages more adjusted net yards per pass attempt this season than Cousins. Defensively, they rank closer to average, 11th in DVOA.
Lions at Vikings
Point Spread: Lions +13.5
Total Points: 42.5
Money Line: Lions +600; Vikings -835
Overall: Lions 3-8-1; Vikings 8-4
ATS: Lions 5-7; Vikings 6-6
O/U: Lions 8-4; Vikings 7-5
- Out: DE Da’Shawn Hand (ankle), QB Matthew Stafford (hip, back)
- Doubtful: DE Austin Bryant (hip)
- Questionable: CB Jamal Agnew (ankle), CB Rashaan Melvin (ribs)
- Doubtful: WR Adam Thielen (hamstring)
- Questionable: T Riley Reiff (concussion)
- The Vikings have won eight of their last nine home games.
- The Vikings have covered the spread in each of their last four games against the Lions.
- Each of the Vikings’ last six home games against the Lions have gone UNDER the total points line.
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