The last time these two teams met, the Patriots won the AFC Championship Game by a score of 37-31 in overtime. Both teams come into this game relatively healthy aside from the Chiefs running backs, who are dealing with injuries to both Damien and Darrel Williams, both of whom didn’t practice early in the week.
The Chiefs have been rolling offensively as of late. Over their last three games, they’re averaging 32 points per game. Making this most impressive was their win over the Raiders by a score of 40-9. Patrick Mahomes ($7,000) only threw for 175 yards and a touchdown while LeSean McCoy ($4,400), Darwin Thompson ($4,000) and the defense did the rest. The Patriots pose a tough threat defensively but we’ve certainly seen some chinks in the armor as of late. Specifically, seeing Deshaun Watson throw for 234 yards and three touchdowns last week against them. The Pats also haven’t been particularly challenged at the tight end position, which could make for a sneaky game from Travis Kelce ($6,200) against S Patrick Chung.
This game won’t be a cakewalk for the Pats offense against a tough Chiefs secondary. They’ve very quietly held opposing receivers to an average of 123 receiving yards and nine touchdowns on the year. Those numbers put them right in line with what the Pats secondary has done, which honestly is mind-blowing when you think of how much praise the Pats get. Aside from Julian Edelman ($7,100), it’s hard to trust any particular receiver and recent injuries to Mohamed Sanu ($5,000) and Phillip Dorsett ($4,400) haven’t helped their production. The best path to victory for the Pats will come on the ground against one of the worst run defenses in the league from the Chiefs. Choosing between Sony Michel ($5,600) and James White ($5,500) has become nearly impossible but for what it’s worth, White out-touched Michel last week 25-10. Opposing backs have averaged 121 rushing and 63 receiving against the Chiefs this season.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook
Chiefs at Patriots
Point Spread: Patriots -3
Total Points: 49
Money Line: Chiefs +145; Patriots -167
Overall 2019: Chiefs 8-4; Patriots 10-2
ATS 2019: Chiefs 7-5; Patriots 7-5
O/U 2019: Chiefs 7-5; Patriots 4-8
- Out: CB Morris Claiborne, CB Rashad Fenton, RB Damien Williams
- Questionable: DE Frank Clark (shoulder), S Jordan Lucas (shoulder/illness)
- Out: DL Byron Cowart, OL Ted Karras
- Questionable: LB Ja’Whaun Bentley (knee), OL Marcus Cannon (illness), S Patrick chung (heel), WR Julian Edelman (shoulder), CB Jason McCourty (groin), WR Mohamed Sanu (ankle)
Notable Prop Bets
Chiefs total touchdowns over 2.5 -109
Patriots total touchdowns over 2.5 -155
Chiefs team total over 23.5 -103
Chiefs 1H +1.5 -106
- The Patriots have won each of their last 21 games at Gillette Stadium.
- The Patriots have covered the spread in eight of their last nine December games at Gillette Stadium.
- Each of the Chiefs’ last seven games as underdogs have gone OVER the total points line.
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Odds and lines subject to change. See website for actual odds.
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