The goal of this article will be to examine betting angles for this week’s NFL matchups. So not only will we identify potential spots to target, but also spots that could be traps, or just to stay away from all together. Here are some plays on the DK Sportsbook that standout:
Spot Worth Targeting: Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Seattle Seahawks
I was originally going to go with the Cowboys in this spot, but that seems like the spot the public is hammering the most this week. The spread opened up as DAL -3.5 in Washington. While I was able to play it at -4.5, it’s blown up all the way to DAL -6. But I think this spot in Pittsburgh is equally as strong but comes without any of the hype.
The Steelers looked awful in a 33-3 loss at the hands of the Patriots on Sunday night, but New England is starting to have the feeling of an elite team, particularly on the defensive side. Pittsburgh has been a fantastic bounce-back team, going 16-9 ATS off a loss since 2014, per Spread Investor. Ben Roethlisberger has also traditionally had much better splits at home, which should help the offense in this one.
More importantly, I think the stronger side of this bet is fading the Seahawks after what we saw in Week 1. Seattle was a nine-point favorite at home against the Bengals, and squeaked out a one-point victory that it really had to fight for. The ’Hawks didn’t show much of a passing attack, and behind a banged up Tyler Lockett, don’t have much. Chris Carson will be heavily relied on, but will have to face a Pittsburgh defense that actually fared well against the run in New England. Seattle’s offensive line looked atrocious in Week 1 and should have even bigger problems traveling to Pittsburgh to face a more talented group.
The play: PIT -3.5
Trap Spot: Denver Broncos vs. Chicago Bears
This line opened with the Broncos favored prior to MNF last week, and then we saw just how incapable Denver’s offense looked, and the Bears have easily moved to the favorites. Not so fast.
What we saw from the Broncos on offense in Week 1 wasn’t good, but this should be an elite defense at home, with Von Miller and Bradley Chubb getting after opposing QBs. I know it’ll be a distant memory when this game kicks off, but do we remember how bad the Bears’ offense looked at home against the Packers? Mitch Trubisky and crew actually looked worse than Denver, and mustered up a mere three points. I expect the Broncos’ defense to be the best unit in this game.
However, history tells us this spot sets up tremendously for the home team. Mile High is a tough place to play, especially early in the season when the players aren’t yet in their best shape. The Broncos have won 13 consecutive home games in the month of September, and are 7-3-3 ATS during that run. We might have value on Denver at this point.
The trap: CHI -2.5
Potential play: DEN +117 ML
Stay Away Spot: Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots
This is a historic spread, with the Patriots going down to Miami as the second-largest road favorite in NFL history. After what we saw from each team in Week 1, I understand why the spread is what it is, but this is a divisional game in a place the Patriots have struggled mightily — dropping five of their past six in Miami.
I’ve heard chatter from both sides about why it’s a good bet, and the bottom line is just that you don’t want to be on either side of this one. Would it surprise me if the Patriots won 45-3? Would it surprise me if the Patriots won 17-10? The answer to both is no.
While the Patriots generally perform well as double-digit favorites, they also have a history of just grinding out these division games when they’re away from home. This is a different Miami team from the past though, and look to be in full-on tank mode. If you can’t tell by now, I’m playing both sides, which is why we don’t bet this.
In the end, I don’t think Miami will be able to score in this one, which should slow New England down in the end. That gives me the lean on the under here.
Stay away: From both sides! NE -19/MIA +19
Potential play: UNDER 48.5
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jedlow) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.\
Odds and lines subject to change. See website for actual odds.
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