Editor’s update 11:40 p.m.: The Titans came in as favorites, but they never seemed to get into this one the entire night. Gardner Minshew threw two touchdown passes and the Jaguars defense sacked Marcus Mariota nine times en route to a 20-7 victory. The Jaguars won outright as home underdogs, and the score came in under the 39-point total. Both teams now sit at 1-2.
Editor’s update 5:25 p.m.: The Titans are the overwhelming public favorite in this matchup against the Jaguars. 75 percent of the money bet and 76 percent of the tickets bet are on Tennessee. The public sees a low-scoring game coming out of this. 72 percent of money bet and 61 percent of tickets bet are on the under (39).
The NFC South Thursday night battle was uninspiring, to say the least. I’m afraid this week might be more of the same. This time around, we have an AFC South matchup between the Tennessee Titans and Jacksonville Jaguars. It’s a home game for the Jags, and while they’re 1.5-point underdogs, they should consider this a must-win for morale purposes, if nothing else. Losing their new starting QB, Nick Foles, to injury in Week 1 and coming up short on a game-winning two-point conversion in Week 2 is a devastating way to begin the season. And to add salt to the wound, Jacksonville’s star cornerback, Jalen Ramsey, has requested a trade. Yikes.
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All that said, the Titans aren’t the most reliable bet. After stopping the Browns’ hype in Week 1, Tennessee lost 19-17 to a Jacoby Brissett-led Indianapolis team. This is the type of inconsistency we’ve come to expect from Marcus Mariota (DraftKings Showdown salary $10,000) and the Titans. But the Jaguars haven’t done so well against their division rivals as of late, losing in six out of their last seven meetings. Before the season, the Titans were my dark horse pick to win the AFC South, and this could be a big step in that direction. Derrick Henry ($10,600 and most expensive player) will be a key ingredient in the Titans’ recipe for success. Henry’s breakout game came against the Jaguars last season, where he ran for 238 yards and four touchdowns. While I wouldn’t predict similar numbers in this one, he’s still lined up for a big night.
The Titans’ defense has been great against the pass (second-fewest yards allowed) but somewhat susceptible to the run (seventh-most yards allowed.) Though Tennessee held Indy’s Marlon Mack to 2.5 yards per carry last week, Jacksonville would still be wise to get Leonard Fournette ($9,800) involved as much as possible.
The Titans have covered the spread in four straight games against the Jaguars, and Thursday night won’t be any different. Gardner Minshew II ($9,200) and the Jags will rack up a couple giveaways, boosting the Titans’ league-leading turnover difference even higher. I have Derrick Henry going for his third consecutive game with a touchdown, as well.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
Titans at Jaguars
Point Spread: Jaguars +1.5
Total Points: 39
Money Line: Titans -125; Jaguars +104
Overall 2018 (2019): Titans 9-7 (1-1); Jaguars 5-11 (0-2)
ATS 2018 (2019): Titans 8-8 (1-1); Jaguars 5-9-2 (1-1)
O/U 2018 (2019): Titans 8-8 (1-1); Jaguars 6-10 (1-1)
Notable Prop Bets
- Marcus Mariota with over 1.5 pass TDs: +150
- Derrick Henry with first TD of the game and team to win: +800
- Gardner Minshew to throw over 1.5 interceptions: +240
- Leonard Fournette under 19.5 rushing attempts: -115
- Four of the last five Thursday night games have been won by the underdogs.
- The Titans have failed to cover the spread in 20 of their last 24 road games against AFC South opponents.
- Each of the Titans’ last eight night games have gone OVER the total points line.
- Derrick Henry has scored the first touchdown in three of the Titans’ last four games against the Jaguars.
- Marcus Mariota has scored a touchdown in each of the Titans’ last two Thursday night road games.
- D.J. Chark has scored a touchdown in each of the Jaguars’ last two games.
- Dede Westbrook has scored a touchdown in each of the Jaguars’ last two September games as home underdogs.
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Odds and lines subject to change. See website for actual odds.
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