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Cowboys, Patriots face shaky historical trend as 20+ point favorites

The Cowboys and Patriots are expected to blow out the Dolphins and Jets, respectively. History suggests this might play out differently.

Super Bowl LII Proposition Bets At The Westgate Las Vegas Race & Sports SuperBook Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images

Week 3 of the 2019 NFL season brings with it a historical betting opportunity. The Dallas Cowboys host the Miami Dolphins and the New England Patriots host the New York Jets, with both games featuring a 22.5-point spread. These two games are the ninth and tenth dating back to 1984 that have featured a point spread of 20 or more points, according to Covers’ Jason Logan.

The more interesting part of the research? None of the previous eight games saw the favorite cover. It’s not entirely shocking given how difficult it is to blow out even the worst team in the NFL.

The Patriots did crush the Dolphins last week after the line closed at 19 points. It is entirely possible the Dolphins really are simply that bad. They are the worst ranked team in DVOA by a long shot, and are one of the ten worst teams through two weeks dating back to 1985, according to Football Outsiders. I probably won’t lay the points this weekend with Dallas, but there’s no way I’ll bet on Miami.

Then there’s the Jets. They entered the season as a playoff hopeful, with the addition of Le’Veon Bell, C.J. Mosley, and Quinnen Williams, and the hope of Sam Darnold taking a step forward. Instead, Mosley and Williams are banged up, and Darnold is sidelined by a case of mono. Trevor Siemian replaced Darnold and managed to tear ligaments in his ankle. Luke Falk is now starting at quarterback until Darnold returns. This is another one I just want no part of. New England probably crushes them, but with a new quarterback — even Luke Falk — there’s enough unknown that I’d rather just not touch it.

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