While the NFL season usually takes us some time to figure out which teams are for real, and which ones are at the bottom of the barrel, these answers are becoming clear rather quickly in 2019.
With that said, Week 3 is definitely a week to play up for D/ST on DraftKings, with some elite defenses facing inept offenses. Here are my top-three plays on DK this week.
Cowboys D/ST — ($4,300) vs. MIA
The Cowboys and Patriots get to play the two biggest dumpster fires in the NFL this week, and are two of the biggest home favorites we’ve ever seen. I give the slight edge to Dallas here, and it has nothing to do with their team, it’s a pure fade of Miami.
The Dolphins have scored 10 total points this week, and got shutout at home by the Patriots last week, tossing four interceptions in the process, Three of those picks were from Ryan Fitzpatrick, who’s been benched in favor of Josh Rosen. How’d Rosen look against the Pats? Well, give him credit for pushing the ball down field late for 97 yards, but he went just 7-for-18, and the game ended on another interception to the Patriots. Dallas basically just has to show up here, and let the Dolphins make the mistakes.
Patriots D/ST — ($3,800) vs. NYJ
The Patriots are really 1A here, but if you want the $500 savings off the Cowboys to get the more talented defense, I’m not going to argue with you. The Patriots have allowed three total points in two games this season, including that shutout in Miami. New England returned two of those four picks for touchdowns, and also recorded seven total sacks — 37 DKFP.
Now the Jets come to town, following a three-point performance on MNF, and will be down to their third-string QB — Luke Falk. Falk was a decent game manager after Trevor Siemian went down with an ugly ankle injury, but still couldn’t get this offense scoring points … and that was at home against the Browns. The Jets have scored 12 total points in their last three trips to Foxborough combined, and this could be their ugliest outing yet. The Patriots defense hasn’t had a real test yet, but it looks to be elite.
Packers D/ST — ($3,400) vs. DEN
The Packers have been rock solid defensively this season, forcing five turnovers and six sacks, allowing 19 points over two games. Packers D/ST scored 14 DKFP in the season-opener in Chicago, and then 12 at home against a solid Minnesota offense. This Denver offense is much like the Bears’ offense that Green Bay saw in Week 1.
Joe Flacco has look terrible as a Bronco thus far, and the play calling for Denver has been conservative, to say the least. This is a much improved defense since last season, and more importantly, a defense capable of making big plays. Denver’s offenses is hardly a threat in this one, and there’s upside for turnovers and sacks.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jedlow) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.