Considering safe, trap picks in Week 4 Survivor pools

Welcome back for Week 4 of the 2019 NFL season! We are closing in on the quarter point of the year, and it also brings with it the first bye weeks. The New York Jets and San Francisco 49ers will get the week off. In the meantime, we get a couple fun matchups on the schedule. The Chiefs travel to face the unbeaten Lions, and the Patriots travel to face the undefeated Bills. We’ll get a handle on just how for real Detroit and Buffalo might be.

As we head into Week 4, the bye weeks start to make life a little more difficult in NFL Survivor pools. The Jets are a popular team to pick against with Sam Darnold sidelined, while the 49ers might become a more regular situation given their hot start.

We’re back once again to help you with your Survivor pools. You’re likely settling your traditional fantasy football lineups and DFS lineups, but don’t forget to get your Survivor pick in!

If you’ve never taken part in such a pool, it involves picking one team each week that you think will win. If your team wins in Week 1, you can make a pick in Week 2. If your team wins in Week 2, you can make a pick in Week 3, and so on. The catch is that you cannot pick the same team twice. You could use a heavy favorite in Week 1, but you would not have access to them later in the year if you’re alive in the closing weeks.

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Whether you are in a single-elimination or double-elimination contest, there is plenty of strategy in determining which team you will take each week. DK Nation is here to help with a look at safe choices, value choices, and potential traps.

Last week, we bounced back and were spot on with our picks. Our safe picks, the Patriots and Cowboys, won with relative ease. Our value picks, the Vikings and again the Cowboys, won with ease. Even our trap pick was accurate as the Buccaneers lost to the Giants on a wild comeback led by rookie QB Daniel Jones. I’m in two pools, and used Dallas with both just to keep things simple.

On to Week 4 picks!

Safest picks

Los Angeles Chargers over Miami Dolphins
Los Angeles Rams over Tampa Bay Buccaneers

It’s an LA kind of weekend. The Dolphins are starting to play some shakier teams, but even against a reeling Chargers team, they’re a 16.5-point underdog. Maybe Miami does not go winless, but they haven’t shown any significant signs of life to date.

On the other hand, the Rams are rolling at 3-0, and face a Bucs squad that is coming off an ugly blown lead against the Giants. The only reason to hesitate on this is that maybe the Rams are looking ahead to their Week 5 road game against the Seahawks. But the Bucs are sufficiently bad that I wouldn’t be concerned about that.

Best value picks

Los Angeles Chargers over Miami Dolphins
Baltimore Ravens over Cleveland Browns

Saving the Patriots in their Dolphins matchup made sense, but there’s little reason to save the Chargers. They’re struggling and don’t have many great matchups moving forward. Denver and Pittsburgh are very winnable games, but there are plenty of other value picks those weeks.

Ravens-Browns was a game to skip early in the year, but Cleveland is clearly not at the level many of us thought. They might turn things around, but look for Baltimore to use this game to bounce back from their tough loss to Kansas City. It could be worth holding on to Baltimore, but it’s a decent value pick now.

Trap pick

Indianapolis Colts over Oakland Raiders
Seattle Seahawks over Arizona Cardinals

The Raiders are not what they looked like in a Week 1 win, and they travel to face a Colts team that has won two straight to improve to 2-1. However, it’s worth noting the Colts have a -1 point differential, and have enough weaknesses to make this game interesting.

The Cardinals were thumped by Carolina, but divisional matchups can be wild. The NFC West has a history of crazy finishes and I’m not remotely interested in this matchup.

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