Chargers cover huge point spread after shaky first half vs. Dolphins in Week 4

Editor’s update 3:55 p.m.: The Miami Dolphins made the Los Angeles Chargers sweat early in Week 4, but it should surprise nobody that the Chargers pulled away in the second half and covered the 16.5 point spread. The line dropped to 14 points, but regardless, the Chargers took care of business in a 30-10 victory. Philip Rivers threw for 310 yards and two touchdowns, and Austin Ekeler had 122 total yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns in what might be his last start now that Melvin Gordon is back.

The Dolphins managed their first lead of the season, taking a 7-3 lead with 6:32 left in the first quarter. It lasted less than four minutes, as Rivers found Troymaine Pope with 2:45 left in the quarter to get the lead back. The Dolphins tied it in the second quarter, but fell behind for good on Ekeler’s touchdown reception. Miami drops to 0-4, as their ignominious season continues.

Can the Dolphins really be this bad? Is there a limit to the Chargers’ ability to blow winnable games? Those are the two key questions for this game, and those two questions explain why the last section of this article simultaneously recommends betting on seemingly contradictory alternate game spreads: the Chargers to win by 29 (+500) and on the Dolphins to cover +8 (+220).

All three of the Chargers’ games have been decided by seven points or less, and two of the three saw a fourth-quarter lead change. They failed to cover the spread in all three. Similarly, the Dolphins have repeatedly failed to meet their impossibly shrinking expectations. They, also, have yet to cover the spread. Three weeks in, the Dolphins have just one touchdown.

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One interesting storyline here: Can Keenan Allen continue his dominance? Allen caught eight catches for 98 yards in his worst game this season. The Dolphins may be terrible, but they still have at least one All-Pro-caliber player in CB Xavien Howard. Watching the Dolphins hasn’t been fun this season, but the Allen-Howard matchup demands attention.

All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.

Chargers at Dolphins

Betting Odds

Point Spread: Dolphins +15
Total Points: 44
Money Line: Dolphins +600; Chargers -770

Records

Overall: Chargers 1-2; Dolphins 0-3
ATS: Chargers 0-2-1; Dolphins 0-3
O/U: Chargers 1-2; Dolphins 1-2

Notable Prop Bets

Chargers:

First to score 20 points: -500
Alternate point spread Chargers -29: +500

Dolphins:

Alternate point spread Dolphins +8: +220
Dolphins to lead after Quarter 1: +285

Betting Trends

• The Dolphins have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six games.
• Fourteen of the last 15 games between the Chargers and Dolphins have gone under the total points line.
• In three of the last four games between the Chargers and Dolphins, the highest scoring quarter has been the third.
• Keenan Allen has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Chargers’ last three games against AFC opponents.
• Austin Ekeler has scored at least one touchdown in four of his last five regular season appearances.
• Jakeem Grant has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Dolphins’ last two games against AFC West opponents.

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