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Patriots defense overcomes Frank Gore, strong Bills defensive effort to remain unbeaten

The 3-0 Patriots face an unexpectedly 3-0 Bills squad. We break down the odds, including the point spread, notable prop bets, and recent history.

Tom Brady of the New England Patriots shakes hands with Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills after the game at New Era Field on October 29, 2018 in Orchard Park, New York. Photo by Brett Carlsen/Getty Images

Editor’s update 4:29 p.m.: The New England Patriots narrowly held off the surging Buffalo Bills, winning 16-10 in a Week 4 defensive struggle. The Bills defense did just about everything it could in this one, but it was not enough. A blocked punt returned for a touchdown ended up the difference. Josh Allen threw three interceptions and left with a concussion in the fourth quarter. Matt Barkley threw an interception on fourth and goal, and otherwise could get nothing going to put the Bills in position to win. It was a pedestrian effort from the Patriots offense, but their defense got them this win.

It is business as usual for the New England Patriots, who have been the most dominant team in the league this season. They have a ridiculous +89 point differential in three games, 36 points more than the second-best team. This is in large part to them allowing just three points on defense. That isn’t a typo. In Week 1, they allowed just a field goal to the Steelers. In Week 2, New England shut out Miami. Last week the Jets scored two defensive touchdowns against the second string Pats offense, and those were the only points New York scored. Even accounting for strength of opponent, this is by far the most dominant defensive unit in the league.

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The Buffalo Bills have very quietly gone 3-0 on the back of a strong defense and much improved offense. They rank fourth in pass defense according to Football Outsiders’ DAVE metric, and are 14th in yards per play. That is a massive difference offensively from 2018, when the Bills ranked 31st in yards per play. This contest will be a great barometer for Buffalo to see just how far it has come, and they are being given a ton of wiggle-room in the betting market. The teams they have beaten have a combined record of 1-8.

All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.

Patriots at Bills

Betting Odds

Point Spread: Bills +7
Total Points: 42.5
Money Line: Bills +295; Patriots -345

Records

Overall 2019: Patriots 3-0; Bills 3-0
ATS 2019: Patriots 2-1; Bills 2-1
O/U 2019: Patriots 1-2; Bills 0-3

Notable Prop Bets

Patriots Total Points - Over 24.5 -114, Under 24.5 -114
Bills Total Touchdowns - Over 1.5 -165, Under 1.5 +123
Total Yards of Longest Successful Field Goal - Over 46.5 -115, Under 46.5 -115
First to 25 Points - Patriots +106, Bills +480, Tie +117

Betting Trends

  • Each of the Bills’ last six Week 4 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Patriots have won each of their last seven road games against the Bills.
  • The Patriots have covered the spread in each of their last five games at New Era Field.

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Odds and lines subject to change. See website for actual odds.
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