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The Texans clinched the AFC South before the conclusion of the regular season, which allowed them to rest many of their starters in Week 17 to prepare for the playoffs. Despite winning the division, the Texans had a mediocre point differential in comparison to the rest of the NFL. Houston was outscored by opponents by seven points on the season and finished as the only division winner to post a negative point differential.
Odds to get to and win Super Bowl 54
To reach Super Bowl 54: +2000
To win Super Bowl 54: +3300
Houston is tied for the third lowest odds to win the Super Bowl and rank as the least likely division winner to win the Super Bowl. Houston also easily has the lowest odds among division winners to win the AFC, as their +2000 sits comfortably behind third place New England (+650). This is not surprising given Houston’s unimpressive point differential. Houston also struggled on defense and was highly prone to allowing yards, ranking fifth worst in total yards allowed during the regular season. While Houston has a better than average offense, it is likely not potent enough to overcome such defensive deficiencies.
Super Bowl 54 matchup odds
If Houston is able to reach the Super Bowl, their most likely matchups are against the three top-seeded teams in the NFC. Despite not having a first-round bye as the three-seed, the Saints have better odds than the second-seeded Packers to reach the Super Bowl as New Orleans appear to be the more dangerous playoff team.
Texans vs. 49ers: +5000
Texans vs. Saints: +7000
Texans vs. Packers: +10000
Texans vs. Eagles: +27500
Texans vs. Seahawks: +27500
Texans vs. Vikings: +35000
Exact Super Bowl 54 outcome odds
If Houston makes it to the Super Bowl, they are not expected to win it, as the 49ers, Saints and Packers are all favored over a potential matchup with the Texans, and for good reason. The 49ers, Saints and Packers all posted much better point differentials than Houston during the regular season.
49ers beat Texans: +6600
Saints beat Texans: +9000
Packers beat Texans: +15000
Texans beat 49ers: +15000
Texans beat Saints: +20000
Texans beat Packers: +25000
Eagles beat Texans: +40000
Seahawks beat Texans: +40000
Texans beat Eagles: +50000
Texans beat Seahawks: +50000
Vikings beat Texans: +50000
Texans beat Vikings: +75000
Super Bowl 54 MVP odds
Super Bowl MVP voting generally favors quarterbacks due to the importance of the position, which has Watson comfortably leading the Texans with the best odds to win Super Bowl MVP. Watson has the potential to be an explosive playmaker and finished second best among all QBs in fantasy points per game during the regular season.
As Watson’s primary receiving target, Hopkins has the second best odds, followed by J.J. Watt. Watt has the ability to wreck games with his pass rush, but his health is a big concern. Watt has not played since Week 8 due to a pec injury but is expected to return for the postseason.
Deshaun Watson: +4000
DeAndre Hopkins: +15000
J.J. Watt: +25000
Carlos Hyde: +25000
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