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Chiefs should win, but DeShaun Watson and the Texans should cover

The Chiefs and Texans square off in the Divisional Round. We break down a pick against the spread and point total.

The Kansas City Chiefs host the Houston Texans in a Divisional Round game that is a rematch of their Week 6 matchup at Arrowhead Stadium. The Texans won that one 31-24, but the Chiefs were also playing without tackle Eric Fisher and with a gimpy Patrick Mahomes. Much has changed, including the improved play of Kansas City’s defense.

The Chiefs opened as a 7.5-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the total at 49.5. The line now sits at 9.5, and the point total is up to 51 as of Friday afternoon. The Chiefs are -435 on the money line and the Texans are +360. The Chiefs are 11-5 against the spread this season, and have gone over the point total eight times. The Texans are 8-8-1 ATS and have gone over the point total seven times.

Injury report

The Texans have a busy injury report, with wide receiver Will Fuller and cornerback Johnathan Joseph the most notable names. Joseph is expected to play. Fuller is a game-time decision, and while he did not sound super positive, reports indicate he’s expected to play barring anything crazy happening.

The big question for the Chiefs is the availability of defensive tackle Chris Jones. He suffered a calf injury in practice on Thursday and was a DNP on Friday before being listed as questionable on the final injury report. Travis Kelce is questionable as well, but seems a better bet to play. Andy Reid said “we’ll see” about Jones’ availability.

Pick against the spread

I just can’t lay this many points against DeShaun Watson. The Texans looked atrocious in the first half last week before Watson put them on his shoulders and carried them to victory. I’d prefer the line be ten, but even at 9.5 I’m inclined to take the points.

Will Fuller remains a big question heading into Sunday, but NFL Network is reporting he’ll play barring something crazy. If Fuller plays, that is huge for the Texans offense staying with the prolific Chiefs offense. I think Kansas City wins this game, but a returning Fuller coupled with a banged-up Chris Jones is a big boost for Houston. I’d take the points and the over in this one.

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