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Best Divisional Round DFS options: Tyreek Hill vs. DeAndre Hopkins

Tyreek Hill and DeAndre Hopkins will be plenty busy in Sunday’s Divisional Round matchup. Time to break down the better DFS option of the two.

By average DraftKings fantasy points (DKFP) per game, DeAndre Hopkins ($7,400) and Tyreek Hill ($7,600) enter this weekend’s divisional playoff round as two of the three top fantasy options at wide receiver. Hopkins had the more productive regular season, averaging 18.8 DKFP per game, compared to Hill’s 16.2 DKFP per game. Hill did not play last week as the Chiefs had a bye, while Hopkins scored 16.0 DKFP against the Bills after catching 6-of-8 targets for 90 yards.

Hopkins saw more target volume during the regular season, averaging 10 targets per game, compared to about seven targets per game for Hill. While Hopkins had the more productive overall fantasy output during the regular season, Hill may possess higher upside due to his gamebreaking speed. Hill averaged more yards per reception, had the higher longest reception and averaged more air yards per target.

Fantasy football analysis: Kansas City Chiefs WR Tyreek Hill and Houston Texans WR DeAndre Hopkins

Hill and Hopkins are both a part of what is expected to be the highest scoring game this weekend, as the total points of 51 on DraftKings Sportsbook leads all games by four points. Most of the points are expected to be scored by the Chiefs, as their total points of 30.5 on DraftKings Sportsbook easily leads all teams. Kansas City draws a highly appealing fantasy matchup against a Texans defense that allowed a ton of yards during the regular season, allowing 6.1 yards per play, the most yards per play among all defenses. The Texans allowed a nice 6.9 yards per passing attempt, seventh highest, which puts Hill in an appetizing spot.

With the Chiefs sitting at heavy 9.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook, the Texans could be forced into expanded passing to keep up with Kansas City’s explosive offense, which could put Hopkins in a favorable game-script situation. Will Fuller V (groin) is also banged up, and Hopkins saw more targets during the regular season when Fuller was sidelined, something that could continue again this week if Fuller remains out or is limited with his snaps. Despite the potential for strong volume, Hopkins’ matchup isn’t as soft as Hill’s, as the Texans face a Chiefs pass defense that allowed the sixth fewest yards per pass attempt and held WR to the second fewest DKFP per game.

This is a really close call, and it could ultimately come down to the status of Fuller, as Hopkins saw about three more targets per game in games that Fuller was sidelined during the regular season.

DFS Recommendation

Start DeAndre Hopkins over Tyreek Hill on DraftKings if Will Fuller V (groin) is out

Start Tyreek Hill over DeAndre Hopkins on DraftKings if Fuller plays

I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is timfinn521) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.