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Chiefs vs. Texans matchup statistics for Divisional round

We take a look at the defensive statistics vs. QB, RB, WR and TE for the Chiefs and Texans in preparation for their Divisional round match.

Now that we are in the playoffs, we can dig a little deeper into the defensive statistics for each playoff matchup. It is true that statistics can lie or at least obscure the truth we need to see, but on the whole, they can give us a decent idea how teams are attacked on average.

If a team gives up a ton of rushing yards, we can infer that their opponents have a reason to run against them. Maybe they just can’t stop the run or their pass defense is so good teams need to run or maybe game flow has them trailing more often than not and teams look to salt away the game on the ground. At this point in the season we can feel somewhat confident in what a team’s strengths and weaknesses are.

These stats should help us when we go to set our DFS lineups, especially the Showdown slate for this game. Below I have given us the statistics allowed for each position on the season and just below that, for the last eight games of the season for some context on how team defenses are doing more recently. I’ve also opened up the comments on these posts if you have any questions about the statistics.

For this post we’ll look at the Chiefs and Texans.

Quarterback Stats Allowed Season/Last 8-9 games

Season Opp Rank DKP/G COMP ATT YDS TD INT YPA ATT YDS TD YPC
Season Opp Rank DKP/G COMP ATT YDS TD INT YPA ATT YDS TD YPC
Chiefs HOU 13 17.5 351 581 3846 21 16 6.62 53 265 4 5
Texans @KC 31 23 398 629 4757 33 12 7.56 59 375 3 6.36
* * * * * * * * * * * * * *
(Last 8/9) Opp Rank DKP/G COMP ATT YDS TD INT YPA ATT YDS TD YPC
Chiefs HOU 5 14.4 166 295 1791 10 10 6.07 18 97 0 5.39
Texans @KC 28 23 193 323 2410 15 9 7.46 42 298 2 7.1

The Chiefs pass defense has been strong this season, especially against wide receivers, which is the Texans’ strength in the passing game. They’ve also been good against quarterbacks, even holding DeShaun Watson to one touchdown pass while picking him off twice, but Watson ended up putting up strong fantasy numbers in that matchup due to two rushing touchdowns. On the season, six quarterbacks have thrown for two or more touchdowns against them — Gardner Minshew, Matthew Stafford, Aaron Rodgers, Kirk Cousins, Ryan Tannehill and Philip Rivers. Over the last six weeks, the Chiefs have allowed five touchdown passes to 10 interceptions. Watson will have trouble getting in a rhythm as a passer and will likely need to take to the ground again, which isn’t the worst thing for his fantasy production.

The Texans pass defense is 26th in DVOA compared to the Chiefs ranking of sixth. On the season they’ve allowed seven quarterbacks to throw for three or more touchdowns and 11 throw for two or more. They’ve given up 10 games of 270 or more passing yards and the third-most rushing yards to quarterbacks. Mahomes didn’t have his best game against the Texans in Week 6, which some attribute to his ankle injury, but he still threw for three touchdowns and 273 yards.

Running Back Stats Allowed Season/Last 8-9 games

(Season) Opp Rank DKP/G ATT YDS TD YPC REC YDS TD TAR YPT Catch %
(Season) Opp Rank DKP/G ATT YDS TD YPC REC YDS TD TAR YPT Catch %
Chiefs HOU 29 30.1 357 1736 10 4.86 100 951 5 138 6.89 72.5
Texans @KC 26 28.4 364 1661 9 4.56 110 967 8 131 7.38 84
* * * * * * * * * * * * * *
(Last 8/9) Opp Rank DKP/G ATT YDS TD YPC REC YDS TD TAR YPT Catch %
Chiefs HOU 25 27.4 159 758 4 4.77 55 481 1 78 6.17 70.5
Texans @KC 30 32.6 220 1071 7 4.87 51 491 6 65 7.55 78.5

Both these teams have great quarterbacks and awful run defenses. The question comes down to how committed will each team be to the run? Much depends on game-script of course but on average, the Texans run the ball 27.5 times per game, 11th in the league and Kansas City runs it 23.4 times per game, 27th in the league. The Texans will try to establish the run. They were successful in doing so they last time these teams met, as they ran for 192 yards at a 4.7 yards per attempt clip.

The Chiefs will run the ball, of course, but they won’t rely on it, as the pass is their base offense. Both of these teams give up a ton of receptions and yards to running backs but the Chiefs use their running backs in the passing game much more, as the Texans rank 29th in RB receptions and the Chiefs rank 12th. This game sets up well for Damien Williams and Duke Johnson ion the passing game, but Johnson has been criminally underutilized.

Wide Receiver Stats Allowed Season/Last 8-9 games

(Season) Opp Rank DKP/G REC YDS TD TAR YPT Catch %
(Season) Opp Rank DKP/G REC YDS TD TAR YPT Catch %
Chiefs HOU 2 26.4 154 1956 11 276 7.09 55.8
Texans @KC 21 37.5 210 2839 19 355 8 59.2
* * * * * * * * * *
(Last 8/9) Opp Rank DKP/G REC YDS TD TAR YPT Catch %
Chiefs HOU 1 22.7 65 838 5 135 6.21 48.1
Texans @KC 10 30.2 97 1289 5 180 7.16 53.9

The Texans held wide receivers to just five touchdowns in their last nine games and still gave up the eighth-most touchdowns to the position. The turnaround was notable but they still were giving up good yardage to wideouts. On the season, eight receivers topped 100 yards against them while Kansas City allowed just one, D.J. Chark in Week 1.

Tyreek Hill was just returning from his shoulder injury when these two teams met in Week 6 and played on a limited 28-of-55 snaps and still caught five passes for 80 yards and two touchdowns. A full-go Hill and a healthy Mahomes are going to be trouble for the Texans.

Wide Receiver Fantasy Points Allowed by position

Team Opp Left WR PPG Right WR PPG Slot WR PPG
Team Opp Left WR PPG Right WR PPG Slot WR PPG
Chiefs HOU 3 7.8 1 7.5 18 19.2
Texans @KC 25 12.8 28 13.1 25 20.8

The Chiefs main weakness has been against slot receivers while the Texans have been an equal opportunity bad pass defense. DeAndre Hopkins does see a lot of time in the slot, so this could be something the Texans try more often this week. Will Fuller is looking like he will play, which would be a huge boost for their passing game.

Tight End Stats Allowed Season/Last 8-9 games

(Season) Opp Rank Pts/G REC YDS TD TAR YPT Catch % DVOA
(Season) Opp Rank Pts/G REC YDS TD TAR YPT Catch % DVOA
Chiefs HOU 28 14.3 98 974 5 144 6.76 68.1 4
Texans @KC 21 12.9 79 949 6 122 7.78 64.8 15
* * * * * * * * * * *
(Last 8/9) Opp Rank Pts/G REC YDS TD TAR YPT Catch %
Chiefs HOU 26 15.6 47 507 4 69 7.35 68.1
Texans @KC 28 15.8 46 628 4 67 9.37 68.7

Both the Texans and Chiefs have given up a good chunk of DK points to tight ends this season and most of their touchdowns allowed have come in the second half of the season. DVOA has them much better off than the statistics they’ve allowed do, so I’m hesitant to call the Chiefs an easy team against tight ends, especially with Tyrann Mathieu at safety. The Texans don’t use their tight ends that much but Darren Fells has been a good touchdown maker this season. We know what Travis Kelce can do and I don’t see Tashaun Gipson locking him down this weekend.