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Best DFS lineup strategy for Chiefs-Texans in Showdown

The Chiefs host the Texans in the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs. Who will the top fantasy plays be on the DraftKings showdown slate?

The Texans escaped a 16-0 deficit at home against the Bills on Wild Card Weekend, coming away with a wild 22-19 victory in overtime. Their reward? A trip to Kansas City to face a Chiefs squad that’s won six in a row.

KC is a 9.5-point favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook, but it’s worth noting Houston did steal a 31-24 victory at Arrowhead Stadium back in Week 6. With the total set at 51 points, this could be one of the best games of the weekend for fantasy production. Here’s who stands out.

Captain Obvious

Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs ($19,200)

Mahomes struggled a little bit in this matchup back in Week 6, completing just 19-of-35 passes for 273 yards while dealing with an ankle injury. He did toss three touchdowns, although his interception and lost fumble played key roles in the loss. He finished with 20.82 DKFP. That was then, this is now. Outside of Lamar Jackson, no QB brings the ceiling Mahomes does, and the Houston defense allowed the second-most DKFP to QB this season.

Captain Courageous

Damian Williams, RB, Chiefs ($12,000)

You can still go ahead and roster Mahomes and/or Deshaun Watson ($11,000) in your FLEX, but it could be be contrarian to focus on the run game in this contest. The Chiefs’ backfield has been a revolving door all season. In fact, when we saw this matchup in Week 6, Williams only got two touches for 20 yards, although one was a 14-yard touchdown reception. But KC committed to Williams down the stretch, giving him 35 touches (seven receptions on 10 targets) for 246 yards and three touchdowns (26.3 DKFP per game). While the focus is on how bad the Texans are against the pass, this defense also allowed the 27th-most DKFP to RB this season. Williams has a fantastic game script in front of him, as a 9.5-point home favorite with a high total.

Flex Men

Sammy Watkins, WR, Chiefs ($5,200)

If you’re building a stack around Mahomes, you’re almost certainly plugging in either Travis Kelce ($9,000) or Tyreek Hill ($10,400) — who scored two touchdowns and 25 DKFP in this matchup in Week 6 — as your next play. You’re going to need some savings through, and it pains me to say you might need to take a look at Watkins. I think Watkins is a fade on the four-game main slate, but in Showdown, he’s worth considering. Watkins got attention for his massive Week 1, where he went for 29.4% of his yards for the season, and 100% of his touchdowns (three). This is tied for the cheapest showdown salary Watkins has been all season, and if he has one more big game in the cards, he could break this slate.

Carlos Hyde, RB, Texans ($6,200)

Watson and DeAndre Hopkins ($10,000) are the key pieces to starting a Houston stack, and played well here in Week 6. The Chiefs’ secondary is just so improved (second in DKFP allowed to WR), that you may want to consider a contrarian route. Houston may try and kill some clock in this one to grind out the win, which is how you attack this defense — it ranked 26th in DKFP allowed to RB. Hyde was absolutely crucial in the Week 6 win at Arrowhead, having his best game of the season, thanks to the Texans trusting him with a monster workload. Hyde carried 26 times for 116 yards and a touchdown, also hauling in a 14-yard reception (22 DKFP).

I am an avid fan and user (my username is jedlow) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.