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People really do believe ‘tails never fails’

The coin toss will get the CFP National Championship Game going Monday evening, and one side of the coin is getting the love.

UPDATE: Clemson called heads on the coin toss and the result was tails. LSU elected to defer to the second half, which means Clemson would receive to open the game.

We are officially entering the three most important weeks of the football calendar. It starts Monday evening with the College Football Playoff National Championship Game, and ends three weeks from now with Super Bowl 54.

There are numerous ways to bet on both games, but a quietly popular prop bet is the coin toss. Studies have shown a bit of bias depending on what is facing up at the time of the flip, but it’s effectively a 50/50 probability.

DraftKings Sportsbook has odds on the coin toss outcome, with heads and tails each installed at -106 odds. Although there is a near 50/50 chance of either option coming up, the betting public is backing tails to a sizable degree. According to DraftKings, 62 percent of bets placed are on tails and 56 percent of the handle is on tails.

We’ve regularly heard the old adage “tails never fails,” and one has to think this plays into the mindset. For those who have checked recent history, we’ve seen five CFP title games. The coin toss results were as follows:

2019: tails
2018: tails
2017: heads
2016: tails
2015: heads

It’s a single event, so one can’t argue “heads is due” or “tails is on a roll,” but I suppose when one is betting on this kind of 50/50 proposition, they’ll look for any edge they can get.

In related news, there is an odd split for which team which will win the coin toss. 59 percent of total bets are on the Clemson Tigers to win the toss, while 83 percent of the handle is on the LSU Tigers to win it. If you’re curious about the CFP title game history here, the calling team has won the toss three times and lost it twice.

2019: Clemson calls, Alabama wins
2018: Alabama calls, Alabama wins
2017: Clemson calls, Clemson wins
2016: Alabama calls, Clemson wins
2015: Oregon calls, Oregon wins

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