Not many, if any, predicted the AFC Conference Championship would feature the Tennessee Titans and Kansas City Chiefs and yet, here we are. The Titans beat the Ravens in convincing fashion, which will keep the “is the bye week worth it” debate alive. For a Ravens team that had won 12 straight coming into the Divisional Round, they only managed 12 points against the Titans.
The Titans will most certainly continue to ride Derrick Henry hard in this game against a Chiefs run defense that allows an average of 105 rushing yards and 4.8 YPC to opposing backs. Since Week 10 of the regular season, which coincidently came against the Chiefs, Henry has rushed over 100 yards in all but one game. In that game against the Chiefs, Henry had 188 yards and two touchdowns, setting off a span of eight games where he’s averaged 159 rushing yards.
With the success of Henry, they’ve been able to limit Ryan Tannehill, who has only thrown the ball 29 times in the past two weeks for 160 yards and three touchdowns. Against a Chiefs secondary that continues to be vastly underrated, the Titans will continue their ground and pound approach but will have to overcome being underdogs, a scenario they have a 4-4 record against the spread in.
The Chiefs pulled off one of the biggest comebacks in NFL history against the Texans, as they are now one of three teams to be down by 20+ points and then win by more than 20. Unfortunately for the Texans, this feat was accomplished against them for the first time in the playoffs, as they other two occurred during the regular season. This game truly showed how deadly this offense can be in all facets of the game. Damien Willams had two rushing and a receiving touchdown while Travis Kelce had three of his own.
While the Titans hovered around league average defending against the run, they struggled against tight ends. This defense allowed an average of 58 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns, which is tied for the second-most in the league. Stopping Patrick Mahomes from throwing to Kelce is going to be a major issue for the Titans to deal with. As big favorites, a spot where the Chiefs have a 7-7 record against the spread, this could be a game we never knew we wanted but actually need it.
Titans at Chiefs
Point Spread: Chiefs -7.5
Total Points: 52.5
Money Line: Titans +290; Chiefs -345
Overall: Titans 11-7; Chiefs 13-4
ATS: Titans 10-7-1; Chiefs 11-5-1
O/U: Titans 10-8; Chiefs 9-8
Questionable: LB Jayon Brown (shoulder), T Jack Conklin (shoulder), LB Rashaan Evans (foot), WR Cody Hollister (ankle), WR Adam Humphries (ankle), CB Adoree’ Jackson (foot), LB David Long (knee)
Questionable: DT Chris Jones (calf), RB LeSean McCoy (illness), QB Matt Moore (illness)
- The Chiefs have won 14 of their last 15 Sunday day games at Arrowhead Stadium.
- The road team has covered the spread in each of the Titans’ last seven games.
- Nine of the Titans’ last 10 day games have gone OVER the total points line.
- Jonnu Smith has scored the first touchdown in two of the Titans’ last three games as underdogs.
- Travis Kelce has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Chiefs’ last four games following a home win.
- A.J. Brown has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Titans’ last four day games.
- Derrick Henry has scored two or more touchdowns in three of the Titans’ last four Sunday road games.
- Damien Williams has scored two or more touchdowns in each of the Chiefs’ last two games.
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