49ers vs. Packers matchup statistics for Championship round

Now that we are in the playoffs, we can dig a little deeper into the defensive statistics for each playoff matchup. It is true that statistics can lie or at least obscure the truth we need to see, but on the whole, they can give us a decent idea how teams are attacked on average.

If a team gives up a ton of rushing yards, we can infer that their opponents have a reason to run against them. Maybe they just can’t stop the run or their pass defense is so good teams need to run or maybe game flow has them trailing more often than not and teams look to salt away the game on the ground. At this point in the season we can feel somewhat confident in what a team’s strengths and weaknesses are.

These stats should help us when we go to set our DFS lineups, especially the Showdown slate for this game. Below I have given us the statistics allowed for each position on the season and just below that, for the last eight games of the season for some context on how team defenses are doing more recently. I’ve also opened up the comments on these posts if you have any questions about the statistics.

For this post we’ll look at the 49ers and Packers.

The 49ers defense took a big dip in the second half of this season, giving up 19 touchdowns to just three interceptions in the final nine games, but they weren’t healthy and now they are getting healthier and showed extremely well after two weeks rest when taking on the Vikings in the Divisional round, as they held Kirk Cousins to 172 yards passing, one touchdown and one interception.

The Packers have played well against quarterbacks much of the year, especially of late, as they’ve given up five touchdowns to eight interceptions in their last six games. When they do give up receptions, they’re usually deep receptions, but overall, they’ve played well, The only quarterbacks to throw for more than one touchdown and no interceptions have been Carson Wentz, Patrick Mahomes and Jimmy Garoppolo, who they meet this week.

The 49ers run defense has shown some holes at times this season, but overall they’ve been a strong unit, giving up just seven total touchdowns to running backs on the season. That defense showed up last weekend as they took on one of the best running games in the NFL and shut the Vikings down cold.

The Packers on the other hand, have not been a strong run defense, giving up 16 total touchdowns and 4.86 yards per carry to the position. That’s bad news, as the 49ers led the league in running back rushing yards and rushing touchdowns with 2.051 and 19. They also added 753 yards through the air and an additional six touchdowns, the third-most receiving touchdowns in the league.

Both the Packers and 49ers have been good against wide receivers on the season, but the 49ers had quite a bit of trouble with the Saints, Falcons, Rams and Seahawks to end the season. The Packers played better, allowing just the Cowboys in comeback mode to throw more than one touchdown to a wide receiver in a game, while the 49ers gave up two touchdowns to wide receivers in seven games.

Last week Stefon Diggs got them early with a long touchdown grab, but then they shut down Kirk Cousins and his receivers the rest of the way for a total of seven receptions for 107 yards. Russell Wilson and company had a little more luck against Green Bay, catching 13 passes for 195 yards and one touchdown.

Both pass defenses have been fairly solid across the board, as no pre-snap position ranks worse than 16th in fantasy points allowed. That 16th ranking is for the Packers against left wide receivers, but the 49ers move their receivers around so much that it’s not feasible to give that ranking much of an edge for one receiver.

We know Davante Adams is pretty much the Packers whole receiving core and they move him around a lot to give him good matchups. The 49ers don’t have many holes statistically here, but Adams has proven he can put up numbers in even the toughest matchups.

The Packers are vulnerable to tight ends, as seen by their 24th ranking in DVOA and 19th in DK points allowed. George Kittle already had a big game against them and is set up to put up useful fantasy numbers again this week.

Jimmy Graham has seen a bit more work of late, as no wide receivers other than Adams are stepping up in a meaningful way, but he gets a tough matchup in San Francisco, where he caught 1-of-2 targets for seven yards in Week 12.