Betting on touchdown props on DraftKings Sportsbook is fun. That doesn’t always mean it is profitable, but for fantasy players that also gamble, prop bets are often right in our wheelhouse. We need to know what player might score a touchdown so we can get those fantasy points while betting the line has us take a larger view of the game.
When looking at the TD prop bets, you’ll usually see the running backs with the best odds, while we get the backups and secondary receivers as we go down the line. We know some ancillary player will likely get into the end zone, but who?
You can also bet on the first and last touchdown scored. We get much better odds on those, and even picking a goal-line back who sees a bunch of touches near the end zone can give you odds that are worth a wager. Example being, Damien Williams and Derrick Cook, are their respective teams’ most productive touchdown scorers and you can get their odds at +550 to score the first touchdown of the game while their odds to score at any time during the game are -155 and -200 respectively.
DYou can also bet on the first and last touchdown scored. We get much better odds on those, and even picking a goal-line back who sees a bunch of touches near the end zone can give you odds that are worth a wager. Example being, are their respective teams’ most productive touchdown scorers and you can get their odds at +750 and +650 to score the first touchdown of the game while their odds to score at any time during the game are +115 and -106 respectively. res.
Looking at recent usage and matchups, we’ll go through a few of my favorite touchdown wagers for this game on DraftKings Sportsbook.
First To Score a touchdown
Favorite: Derrick Henry (+550)
Sleeper: Sammy Watkins (+1800)
Longshot: Ryan Tannehill (+3000)
Favorite: Travis Kelce (-125)
Sleeper: Adam Humphries (+400)
Longshot: Patrick Mahomes (+500)
Derrick Henry, RB, Titans
Henry has 17 touchdowns so far this season and had two against the Chiefs when they met in Week 10. The Chiefs will try to get the Titans out of their game plan, but Henry isn’t going to become an afterthought if Kansas City gets out to an early lead. He’s the no-doubt goal line back and can also doesn’t need to be close to the goal line to score, as he has broken off some extremely long touchdown runs, including a 99-yarder last season.
Sammy Watkins, WR, Chiefs
Watkins hasn’t been a big part of the offense of late, but he still managed 76 yards on two receptions last weekend. Only Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill are in the game more than Watkins, who plays on 79 percent of the snaps. He also gets a nboost this week, as the Titans are weak against slot receivers, giving up the fifth-most fantasy points to the position and Watkins lines up in the slot over 50 percent of the time.
Ryan Tannehill, QB, Titans
I like going with quarterbacks for touchdown props in the playoffs because these are “do or die” situations and quarterbacks lose some of their inhibitions and sanity. And in Tannehill’s case, he’s been finding the end zone quite a bit this season. He rushed for a touchdown last week against the Ravens, giving him five in his last ten games and the Chiefs have allowed five rushing touchdowns from quarterbacks this season. At his odds, I like the risk for Tannehill starting the game off with a touchdown run.
Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs
The Titans are weak against tight ends and Kelce caught a touchdown against them in Week 10 and they’ve given up the second-most touchdowns to tight ends in the league. Damien Williams and Henry are both strong plays for an anytime touchdown, but Kelce gives you a little more back on your investment and he has similar touchdown upside.
Adam Humphries, WR, Titans
Humphries returned to practice on Thursday and as long as he’s ready to go, he gets the best matchup, as Kansas City ranks 18th at allowing slot receivers fantasy points. If Humphries can’t go, Tajae Sharpe should see the slot work this week, giving him some hope for a touchdown as well.
Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs
Mahomes ran for a touchdown in last season’s playoffs and ran for two in his last five games of the season. If this game is close, which I think it will be, he should have an opportunity to run near the goal lone at some point and he doesn’t have a running back he can count on as an almost sure thing at the goal line.
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