Betting on touchdown props on DraftKings Sportsbook is fun. That doesn’t always mean it is profitable, but for fantasy players that also gamble, prop bets are often right in our wheelhouse. We need to know what player might score a touchdown so we can get those fantasy points while betting the line has us take a larger view of the game.
When looking at the TD prop bets, you’ll usually see the running backs with the best odds, while we get the backups and secondary receivers as we go down the line. We know some ancillary player will likely get into the end zone, but who? You can also bet on the first and last touchdown scored. We get much better odds on those, and even picking a goal-line back who sees a bunch of touches near the end zone can give you odds that are worth a wager.
Looking at recent usage and matchups, we’ll go through a few touchdown wagers for this game on DraftKings Sportsbook.
First To Score a touchdown
Favorite: Raheem Mostert (+850)
Sleeper: Kendrick Bourne (+1800)
Longshot: Jimmy Graham (+2200)
Favorite: Aaron Jones (-106)
Sleeper: Emmanuel Sanders (+250)
Longshot: Jimmy Graham (+425)
Raheem Mostert, RB, 49ers
Mostert had a disappointing game last week as he battled calf cramps, but provided he is healthy this week, he is a candidate to re-take the red zone carries from Tevin Coleman, who scored two TDs last week with Mostert limited. Mostert had scored a touchdown in six consecutive games prior to last week after taking over as the 49ers’ primary RB in red zone situations. The Packers were weak at preventing TDs to running backs during the regular season, allowing the fourth most rushing TDs to RBs, which would put Mostert in an appealing spot if he resumes his normal red zone work.
Aaron Jones, RB, Packers
The 49ers were tough to score rushing touchdowns on during the regular season, allowing just seven rushing TDs to RBs, fourth fewest. That said, Jones was tied for the NFL lead during the regular season in both total touchdowns (19) and rushing touchdowns (16) and leads all players in this game in touches inside the red zone. Jones’ heavy touch volume near the end zone makes him a scoring threat. Jones is coming off a two touchdown performance last week against the Seahawks, and his playing time remained excellent, seeing a strong 22 touches in the game while playing on 84% of the Packers’ offensive plays.
Kendrick Bourne, WR, 49ers
Bourne does not project for big volume, as he played on just 32% of the 49ers’ snaps last week for a run-heavy San Francisco offense, but still managed to see five targets and score a touchdown. Six of Bourne’s 33 catches this season have been TDs, and five of those TDs were on targets inside the 10-yard line, giving Bourne some touchdown upside in red zone situations.
Jimmy Graham, TE, Packers
Graham saw 14% of the Packers’ targets inside the red zone during the regular season, and while he is no longer anything near the touchdown machine that he was during his prime with the Saints, his 6’7” frame still makes him a massive target in red zone situations. With Aaron Jones drawing attention near the goal line, Graham could benefit in play action situations.
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