One of the best ways to get some skin in the game is by betting on player props. By doing so, you can take advantage of a particular player who is in a good matchup or maybe even a bad one. In this piece, we’ll get into the passing yard props for the Conference Championship by looking at who to consider and why. Let’s dive into the DraftKings Sportsbook odds!
Odds on favorite: Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs -150
With the four quarterbacks left playing it’s not hard to see Mahomes as the favorite amongst the group. Aside from Mahomes, we have Jimmy Garoppolo, Aaron Rodgers and Ryan Tannehill. Mahomes was the favorite last week during the Divisional Round but ended up with the third-most passing yards thanks to Deshaun Watson taking the crown at 388 and an unexpected Ravens performance, forcing Lamar Jackson to throw 59 times for 365 yards. With Watson and Jackson out of the mix, now we have quarterbacks who are struggling to consistently surpass 250 yards per game. Rodgers is averaging 249 per game, Garoppolo at 241 and Tannehill at 207. With how poor the Chiefs run defense is and now having to face the unstoppable force that is Derrick Henry, this game could end up staying close and thus having the need to keep Mahomes throwing the ball instead of running it out with Damien Williams. Mahomes is by far the most attractive option to choose from here, even at -150.
Sleeper Pick: Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers +500
Getting these huge odds on Rodgers certainly feels enticing. He’s third of the group with Garoppolo drawing +350. The only problem is, we really haven’t seen the big yardage games from Rodgers this season. Of the 17 games played by the Packers this season, Rodgers has only gone over 300 yards four times this season. In those games, he averaged 43 pass attempts, which for reference, is quite the bump from his average of 32 in the remaining games. As underdogs in this game against the 49ers, he very well may have to throw the ball closer to the 43 attempt average rather than the 32. The Niners have boasted a solid defense for the majority of the season and the Packers may find more success on the ground rather than through the air but we all know that Rodgers will do whatever he needs to in the playoffs. For the odds you’re getting, I don’t hate taking this prop at all.
Long Shot: Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans +700
It’s hard to get excited about a quarterback that’s handed the ball off to Derrick Henry 64 times over the course of the playoffs thus far. As you’d imagine, his pass attempts have been minimal, combining for just 29 over that span. However, it’s not as if Tannehill doesn’t have the capabilities to potentially take this prop down. Of the 12 games, he’s started, he’s gone over 300 yards in three of them, including a 391-yard performance against the Raiders. That’s great and all but it’s hard to imagine the Titans going away from what’s worked for them, which is riding the legs of Henry, especially against a very poor Chiefs run defense. The caveat to that notion would be if the Titans go down by multiple scores, a scenario we have yet to see happen to them in the playoffs. As touchdown underdogs, the Titans could be forced to air it out with Tannehill, which could prove to be their downfall against a solid Chiefs secondary. Overall, the odds are great here but it’s a very, very tough sell to think he’ll beat the other three quarterbacks on this slate.
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