One of the best ways to get some skin in the game is by betting on player props. By doing so, you can take advantage of a particular player who is in a good matchup or maybe even a bad one. In this piece, we’ll get into the rushing yard props for the Conference Championship by looking at who to consider and why. Let’s dive in!
Odds on favorite: Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans -155
Here’s hoping you took Henry at +300 to win this prop last week during the Divisional Round, as he beat out Tevin Coleman by 90 yards. If you were kicking yourself and thinking, “Ok, I can’t let this happen again, I need to bet Henry this week”, well, I have some bad news. You’re going to have to pay up to do so as he’s by far the favorite. It’s hard to go against Henry, who since Week 10 has surpassed 100 yards in all but one game and is averaging 159 yards in that span. It’s also worth noting that the Week 10 game when his unbelievable run (no pun intended) began, was against the Chiefs. In that game, he carried the ball 23 times for 188 yards, averaging a ridiculous 8.2 YPC. The Chiefs run defense hasn’t exactly gotten better since that game so we can essentially pencil in Henry for another big game. The only thing to consider is that the Titans are +7 point underdogs in this game and if they go down by multiple scores, a scenario that has yet to happen during the playoffs, they may have to rely on Ryan Tannehill more than the 29 pass attempts he’s made so far.
Sleeper Pick: Damien Williams, Kansas City Chiefs +650
What great odds for Williams, who is by far the number one back in this Chiefs offense. The Chiefs only rushed the ball 12 times against the Texans in the Divisional Round but Williams handled 100% of them. He averaged just under 4 YPC in those attempts, logging 47 yards. It certainly is a far cry in terms of winning this prop but we’ve seen him break off some huge runs, even in limited opportunities. The Chiefs are favored in this game by seven points, meaning if this game goes according to that, could be some good opportunities for Williams to log more than the 12 carries he had last week. When he faced the Titans in Week 10, he had 19 for 77 yards, good for 4.1 YPC. With the Titans winning both playoff games, they’ve only defended against 27 carries for 121 yards but again, we’re talking about 4.4 YPC. In all, with the odds you’re getting, it certainly makes sense to back the solidified RB1 in an offense that is favored by seven.
Long Shot: Tevin Coleman, San Francisco 49ers +1050
On the surface, it seems a bit odd that the running back with the second-most rushing yards last week would have such big odds for this week. You have to consider that going into this game, Raheem Mostert (+850) had been handling the RB1 duties for the 49ers, albeit by a small margin. Mostert was not only dealing with a calf injury during the game but was said to also be getting treatment for an illness. Thus, Coleman took over the lead running back duties and carried the ball 22 times for 105 yards. It would not shock me to see Mostert back into the lead back role, pushing Coleman back one on the depth chart. With the 49ers using three backs during the game with Matt Breida also in the mix, it’s tough to land on one, let alone lead the slate in rushing yards. Coleman certainly has the abilities, as shown last week, but is not locked into a role that’s trustworthy enough. I don’t hate sprinkling some money into this for the odds alone but as the title appropriately says, this is a long shot.
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