One of the best ways to get some skin in the game is by betting on player props. By doing so, you can take advantage of a particular player who is in a good matchup or maybe even a bad one. In this piece, we’ll get into the receiving yard props for the Conference Championships by looking at who to consider and why. Let’s dive in!
Odds on favorite: Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers +325
Unlike the quarterback or running back position, the wide receiver position has plus odds on all the players being offered. To be fair, this position is fairly wide open to take down the crown but Adams, as you’d expect, is the current favorite. Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce aren’t too far behind at +400 but Adams is the clear cut option in this Packers offense. Last week, Adams drew 11 targets and pulled down eight receptions for 160 yards. For reference, Jimmy Graham was second in targets and only had four. If Aaron Rodgers is throwing, which he may be forced to as underdogs against the 49ers, Adams is his go-to option. Of the 13 games he played, he went over 100 receiving yards in six of them, leading to him averaging 89 per game. He’s going to draw some tough coverage from CB Ahkello Witherspoon and Richard Sherman but Adams is such an immense talent that he can still overcome these matchups. Witherspoon will likely be on Adams more than Sherman, which is the better matchup for the Packers receiver. While Witherspoon only allowed a 57% catch rate, the receptions he did allow went for an average of 14.8 YPR.
Sleeper Pick: A.J. Brown, Tennessee Titans +900
An interesting scenario could come about on Sunday that has yet to befell the Titans during the playoffs. They could be playing catch up. They’ve been underdogs in both of their playoff games against the Patriots and Ravens but were able to overcome the odds. Can they do it again? The jury is still out on that. However, if you’re thinking they could be down in this game, taking a shot with Brown at +900 could be a nice compliment to your thinking. Brown has essentially ghosted the playoffs and by no fault of his own, he simply hasn’t been needed. However, this is someone who since Ryan Tannehill took over during the regular season, averaged 77 yards per game. The Chiefs secondary is a tough cookie to crack so admittedly, this isn’t a great matchup but Brown may need to be fed if they’re behind in this game. He’d see coverage from CB Bashaud Breeland, who has allowed just a 45% catch rate but a massive 16.4 YPR. If the Titans weren’t running Derrick Henry as heavily as they have been, I suspect you’d be getting much smaller odds on Brown to lead than the +900 you are currently.
Long Shot: Mecole Hardman, Kansas City Chiefs +5500
As you’d expect, the long shots are, well, long shots. Nothing really pops out with the exception of Hardman. This is someone who’ll see very limited targets but what he’s done with those opportunities has been impressive. On 28 receptions, Hardman logged 557 receiving yards, good for 20 YPR. He has catches of over 30 yards or more in six of his 17 games, which helped boost his average yards per game to 32.8. This is one of those where you could lay a little money but bring back a massive haul because of how outrageous the odds are. As for the Titans secondary, they did struggle with the deep pass, allowing an average of 13 YPR this season. With the odds as large as they are, even a simple $5 bet would bring back $280 in your total payout, making it worthwhile.
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