When looking at how many total points the When looking at how many total points the Titans and Chiefs will score in the AFC Championship game, there are many different stats and narratives to choose from. We will delve into a few, but the deep dive could drown us, so we’ll try to keep it simple so we don’t bury ourselves so deep in stats that we can’t see the finish line, which also happens to be our wager cashing.
Current over/under line: 53
Over/under betting Trends
On the season, the Chiefs have hit the over nine times and the under eight times while the Titans have gone over ten times and under eight times. That gives us a slight over vibe, but nothing to perk our ears too high.
In games with over/under lines between 52 and 54, the over hits slightly more often at 48.7 percent to 47.4 percent since 2014.
So far in the 2020 playoff games, the under is 6-2, but the last two games went over and since 2011 conference championship games have an over record of 20-12-2.
The Chiefs have averaged the third-most points in the league with 29.5 per game while the Titans rank eighth at 25 points per game.
The Chiefs have given up the 11th-fewest points in the league with 19.9 points per game while the Titans gave up the tenth-fewest at 19.8 points per game.
This game has an implied total of 30.2 points for the Chiefs and 22.8 for the Titans. So, Vegas is counting on the Chiefs defense knocking the Titans down from their average while the Chiefs get a little bump.
The Chiefs have scored more or matched their implied total of 30.2 points in eight of their 17 games while the Titans have gone over their implied 22.8 points in 10 of their 18 games and eight of their last 12, including their game against the Chiefs in Week 10 when they put up 35.
The Titans beat the Chiefs in Week 10 35-32 with a last second field goal. The Chiefs got up to a 10-0 lead but the TItans battled back, trading scores and keeping the game close enough to be able to give Derrick Henry plenty of work. Tennessee had a little luck, as they had a field goal blocked, another one dropped and a fumble recovery returned for a touchdown. They can’t count on those this time around.
Patrick Mahomes didn’t have much trouble throwing on the Titans secondary, as he compiled 446 passing yards and three touchdowns in his first game back from his dislocated kneecap. Henry also had a huge game, rushing 23 times for 188 yards and two touchdowns.
The Titans will need to play the Chiefs on the road this time around, which is never an easy job. Both teams are playing at the top of their ability and both have different strengths which take advantage of each team’s weakness. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs passing game and Derrick Henry and the Titans running game both should have no problem moving the ball. That’s why the over/under is so high at 53 total points.
If we were just looking for a winner, the Chiefs have the advantage because they don’t need to get a lead for them to be able to use their best weapon all four quarters while the Titans do need to at least keep the game close for Henry to be useful toward the end of the game. But, it sure looks like a matchup built for some good scoring. Even if the Chiefs get an early lead, the Titans won’t abandon Henry and his chunk yardage possibilities on the ground until they have to and then, we get Ryan Tannehill, who has shown enough competency to feel good about him being able to score.
It’s going to be cold in Kansas City, but with little wind and no precipitation, so I expect Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce to do their usual while the Chiefs run defense is the worst unit in this game, which might slow things down a bit, but the Titans touchdown efficiency has been out of this world this season and I don’t expect them to go for many field goals, as they haven’t even tried one in their last four games. I can’t say I love going with the over on 53-points, but this game is set up well for both offenses and not so much for the defenses.
Take the over at 53 total points.
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