Breaking down the quarterbacks going this week is difficult. After Drew Brees, there is a fairly close group of signal callers. I can make an argument for all of them as possible DFS plays this weekend. But there are a few that I’ll target in most of my lineups this week.
Below here you can get an idea of their per game statistics for the season and their DK Points average over the last eight weeks:
Wild Card Quarterback Statistics
Drew Brees, Saints ($6,600)
Brees is the second-highest priced quarterback going this weekend and should be the highest. He has the most DK points on average over the last half of the season and gets a good matchup at home against a beatable Vikings pass defense. Statistically they’ve played well overall but their best pass defender Xavier Rhodes has hit the skids this season and Michael Thomas will be nearly impossible for them to stop. On the season, they’ve allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to wide receivers. And when they’ve faced good receiving backs, they haven’t controlled them. They may be able to slow down Jared Cook, but Alvin Kamara and Thomas should find enough room to help Brees put up his usual strong numbers at home.
Josh Allen, Bills ($6,500)
Of all the quarterbacks going this week, Allen gets the best matchup, as the Texans allow the third-most DK points to the position. If you push that up to their last eight game, they rank second-worst, so they have consistently been bad.
Allen has also been fairly consistent this year, topping 17 DK points in 13-of-15 games. That consistency, as you probably know, comes from his ability to run the ball and his usage around the goal line as a runner. He has nine rushing touchdowns on the season, with six in his last eight games.
The Texans should be able to keep pressure on Allen to score and are favored at home, so this should be a game where we’ll see his upside. His two best receivers, Cole Beasley and John Brown both get good matchups as well, which could give up a couple touchdowns through the air and one on the ground. Those are the numbers we’re looking for from Allen and they are well within reach this weekend.
Russell Wilson, Seahawks ($6,800)
Wilson is the highest priced quarterback on the slate and shouldn’t be. That is probably enough reason to fade him, but I love his upside in this game and I don’t see that same upside in the other quarterback matchups.
Wilson has done some of his best work on the road this year, as he’s completed over 70 percent of his passes and averaged 8.4 yards per attempts to 7.6 at home. The Seahawks are 7-1 on the road to 4-4 at home, including a win in San Francisco. We don’t need to worry about his ability to face road adversity and he gets a strong matchup with the Eagles pass defense, which has allowed good games to Case Keenum, Matt Ryan, Aaron Rodgers, Kirk Cousins, Dak Prescott, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Dwayne Haskins.
The Eagles run defense is their strength, which should push Seattle to give more work to their best player, Wilson. They don’t use him enough, which hurts his fantasy upside, but that should change this week, which gives me hope for an upside game.