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Best lineup strategy for Raptors vs. Heat NBA Showdown [UPDATE]

How will the Heat respond after their worst loss of the season? We break down lineup construction for Thursday night’s Showdown contest between Toronto and Miami.

Miami Heat v Washington Wizards Photo by Will Newton/Getty Images

UPDATE: Justise Winslow has been ruled out for tonight’s game vs. the Raptors.

The Miami Heat are coming off their worst game of the season. Inexplicably, they got blown out as massive favorites against a shorthanded Washington Wizards’ team. Miami is trying to get back on track against another banged up team, the Toronto Raptors. Despite losing Pascal Siakam, Norman Powell and Marc Gasol to long term injuries, the Raps have done well to stay afloat. They have won four of seven games since the injuries and recently beat the Boston Celtics by 16 points.

Captain’s Picks

Even though Kyle Lowry ($15,000) and Fred VanVleet ($14,100) have played extremely well lately, it’s hard for me to trust either of them in this matchup. Arguably, the Heat have the best defense in the Eastern Conference and scoring fantasy points against them is no easy task. Miami allows the least DKFP to both the point guard and shooting guard positions. Neither Lowry nor FVV make for great captain’s picks in my opinion.

Taking the top Raptors’ out of the equation, I am down to either Jimmy Butler ($15,600) or Bam Adebayo ($14,400) as my top choice. Between the two, it’s Butler with the far easier matchup. The Raptors allow the third fewest DKFP to centers, but haven’t been great against wings. Toronto is allowing the fifth most DKFP to small forwards and Butler scored 62.25 DKFP the last time these teams met. Butler is the most expensive player in this game and for good reason.

FLEX Options

The Raptors switched their lineup up last game. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson ($5,200) started ahead of OG Anunoby ($6,800) and the move seemed to have a positive effect on both players. Anunoby busted out of a slump and scored 29.25 DKFP while RHJ scored 22.75 DKFP. It was the first time either player eclipsed 20 DKFP since prior to Christmas.

Relative to price, the hottest Raptor lately has been Serge Ibaka ($9,200). In recent games, his playing time has appeared to be a bit more secure and he’s played over 30 minutes in three consecutive games, averaging 36.67 DKFP over the stretch. Even though the Heat have a great defense, they have been slightly vulnerable against centers and allow the fifth most DKFP to the position.

A value play to look at from Miami is Derrick Jones Jr. ($4,800). He remains a bit too cheap for his current role. Justise Winslow has been ruled out for yet another game, and Miami has leaned heavily on Jones in his absence. Jones is regularly playing around 30 minutes and has at least 22 DKFP in eight of his last 10 games.

I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is gehrenberg) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.