Previewing Patrick Mahomes for Super Bowl DFS

The Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers square off in Super Bowl 54 on Sunday, February 2nd. We’ll be breaking down everything you need to know to prepare your daily fantasy football lineups for the big game. We’re starting with a player-by-player preview for the skill position players on the two teams.

Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes won the 2018 NFL MVP with one of the greatest statistical seasons for a quarterback ever and he was only 22 years old. That year he threw for 5,097 yards and 50 touchdowns, becoming only the second player to ever hit 50 touchdowns and 5,0000 yards in a season. Peyton Manning is the only other quarterback to reach those plateaus in the same season.

DFS Super Bowl price

DraftKings Captain: $18,900
DraftKings Flex: $12,600
FanDuel: $16,000

DFS opponent position ranking

DraftKings: 13th
FanDuel: 10th

Season performance

Mahomes’ statistics took a hit in his second season as the starter, which was inevitable after such lofty numbers in his first season, but injuries also contributed. An ankle injury in Week 1 bothered him until he dislocated his knee cap in Week 7 against the Broncos and returned in Week 10 against the Titans, much quicker than many expected. Those injuries slowed him and his numbers down, but Mahomes still threw for 4,031 yards, 26 touchdowns and just five interceptions along with great peripheral numbers on the season.

Playoff performance

Mahomes got an extra week of rest for the playoffs, appearing healthy and at the top of his game. Against the Texans and Titans, he completed 46-of-70 passes for 615 yards, eight touchdowns, and no interceptions while rushing 15 times for 106 yards and another score.

He’s on a historic run but gets his toughest matchup of the playoffs in the Super Bowl.

Matchup

The 49ers have been dominant defensively at times, but have also shown cracks that can be exploited. So far in the playoffs, they’ve been dominant when needed. After getting up big against the packers, they let things get slightly closer than they’d like, as Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones, and Davante Adams all put up useful statistics. Still, they were never in any real danger of losing the game.

Through 18 games, the 49ers have given up the 10th-fewest DraftKings points to quarterbacks, but over their last five games, they’ve given up the 13th-most. A tough lineup and some injuries didn’t help, but we did see Rodgers completed 31-of-39 passes for 326 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions in comeback mode last week. Mahomes is better than Rodgers at this point in his career, and if Andy Reid can do his usual magic with two weeks to prepare, there’s no reason to think Mahomes will be shut down in Miami.

DFS pricing and analysis

Mahomes is of course priced much higher than Jimmy Garoppolo, as he is a $12,600 flex at DraftKings and $16,000 at FanDuel. That makes him the highest priced player on both sites and for a good reason. The question is, can you get away with not rostering him? No, no, you can’t. His consistent upside is light-years ahead of Garoppolo and I think we’ll need to find differential at other positions for the Super Bowl slate.

I am an avid fan and user (my username is cogresha) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.