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Favorite, sleeper, and long shot Chiefs for Super Bowl MVP

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The Chiefs have one heavy favorite for Super Bowl MVP, and then a whole bunch of longer shots. We break down some intriguing betting options.

Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs runs ahead looking for a block for Mecole Hardman of the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium in the second quarter against the Baltimore Ravens on September 22, 2019 in Kansas City, Missouri. Photo by David Eulitt/Getty Images

The Kansas City Chiefs are 1.5-point favorites against the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl 54, and that gives some of their big names an edge when it comes to the MVP award. Through 53 Super Bowls, the only time the MVP came from the losing team was in 1971 at Super Bowl V when linebacker Chuck Howley took home the honors.

The quarterback position has dominated the award, with 29 winners to date. It’s no surprise then that Patrick Mahomes leads all candidates for the award in betting odds at DraftKings Sportsbook. The starting quarterback on the favored team will have the shortest odds. Given how close the line is, it’s no surprise that Jimmy Garoppolo has the second best odds.

Below is a full list of Chiefs players available on the odds list. It shows what odds opened up after the Conference Championship games, and what they are as of Tuesday afternoon. We’ll be taking a look at a couple favorites, a couple sleepers, and a couple long shots.

The list includes 41 of the 53 players on the Chiefs roster, with most of them much longer odds. Most notably, we don’t see offensive linemen on the list. Positions that have won the award include QB, RB, WR, LB, DE, S, CB, DT and returner (Desmond Howard).

Favorites

Patrick Mahomes is a heavy favorite, with Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce tied at a distant second. A bet on Mahomes is a bit of an odd choice in light of the odds. If you bet Mahomes right now, you’d get him at +115, which means if you bet $100 you win $115. The Chiefs are currently -122 on the money line, which means if you bet $122, you’d win $100. You can make more money betting Mahomes, but it’s not much more, and if you just bet the Chiefs to win money line, it doesn’t matter who wins the MVP award.

Sleepers

Anybody not named Mahomes counts as a sleeper. The problem with Hill and Kelce is that if they have big games, odds are pretty decent Mahomes will have a big enough day to surpass them with MVP voters. Damien Williams is worth consideration if the 49ers pass defense can contain the Chiefs pass offense to some degree, and we’ve seen how easily Williams can find the end zone.

The Chiefs defense has shown improvement this season, and a strong effort against Kyle Shanahan’s offense could potentially net a rare defensive MVP. Safety Tyrann Mathieu and defensive end Frank Clark are the two most notable names to consider. Mathieu has three pass deflections in the playoffs and led the team with four interceptions during the regular season. Clark has four playoff sacks and had eight during the regular season.

Long shots

The only offensive sleeper of note would be Mecole Hardman, but more because of special teams. He has one touchdown return and had a big return in the Texans game. It would take a monster game, but if he can put together a Desmond Howard-esque performance, he could be worth a bet.

Injuries are always a possibility, so that’s worth factoring in. If LeSean McCoy is once again inactive and Damien Williams gets hurt, Darwin Thompson would hold some value. If Tyreek Hill or Sammy Watkins got hurt, Hardman and the other receivers gain some value.

Your best long shot MVP bet might be one of the Chiefs cornerbacks. Whether it be Charvarius Ward, Bashaud Breeland, or Kendall Fuller, 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo has shown a penchant for at least one mind-numbingly awful throw each week. A pick six or multiple interceptions could secure MVP for a long shot cornerback.

Chiefs Super Bowl MVP odds movement

Player Opening 1/21
Player Opening 1/21
Patrick Mahomes +110 +115
Tyreek Hill +1600 +2000
Travis Kelce +1600 +2000
Damien Williams +3300 +2500
Sammy Watkins +4000 +4500
Tyrann Mathieu +5000 +6000
Mecole Hardman +3300 +8000
Frank Clark +6000 +8000
LeSean McCoy +8000 +8000
Chris Jones +10000 +9000
Matt Moore +10000 +15000
Darwin Thompson +10000 +15000
Harrison Butker +15000 +15000
Anthony Hitchens +15000 +15000
Tanoh Kpassagnon +15000 +15000
Daniel Sorensen +15000 +15000
Terrell Suggs +15000 +15000
Charvarius Ward +15000 +15000
Demarcus Robinson +8000 +17500
Reggie Ragland +15000 +20000
Kendall Fuller +17500 +20000
Bashaud Breeland +20000 +20000
Damien Wilson +15000 +25000
Derrick Nnadi +20000 +25000
Anthony Sherman +20000 +25000
Blake Bell +20000 +40000
Ben Niemann +15000 +50000
Byron Pringle +15000 +50000
Rashad Fenton +17500 +50000
Demone Harris +20000 +50000
Dorian O'Daniel +20000 +50000
Mike Pennel +20000 +50000
Khalen Saunders +20000 +50000
Armani Watts +20000 +50000
Deon Yelder +20000 +50000
Morris Claiborne +25000 +50000
Darron Lee +25000 +50000
Xavier Williams +25000 +50000
Alex Brown +50000 +50000
Dustin Colquitt +50000 +50000
Jordan Lucas +50000 +50000

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