clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

Titans vs. Patriots Matchup Statistics, Wild Card round

We take a look at the defensive statistics vs. QB, RB, WR and TE for the Titans and Patriots in preparation for their Wild Card round match.

Now that we are in the playoffs, we can dig a little deeper into the defensive statistics for each playoff matchup. It is true that statistics can lie or at least obscure the truth we need to see, but on the whole, they can give us a decent idea how teams are attacked on average.

If a team gives up a ton of rushing yards, we can infer that their opponents have a reason to run against them. Maybe they just can’t stop the run or their pass defense is so good teams need to run or maybe game flow has them trailing more often than not and teams look to salt away the game on the ground. At this point in the season we can feel somewhat confident in what a team’s strengths and weaknesses are.

These stats should help us when we go to set our DFS lineups, especially the Showdown slate for this game. Below I have given us the statistics allowed for each position on the season and just below that, for the last eight games of the season for some context on how team defenses are doing more recently. I’ve also opened up the comments on these posts if you have any questions about the statistics.

For this post we’ll look at the Titans at the Patriots.

Quarterback Stats Allowed Season/Last 8 Games

Season Opp Rank DKP/G COMP ATT YDS TD INT YPA ATT YDS TD YPC
Season Opp Rank DKP/G COMP ATT YDS TD INT YPA ATT YDS TD YPC
Patriots TEN 1 12.8 301 532 3188 12 25 5.99 58 224 4 3.86
Titans @NE 18 19 385 595 4336 25 14 7.29 59 240 1 4.07
* * * * * * * * * * * * * *
Last 8 Opp Rank DKP/G COMP ATT YDS TD INT YPA ATT YDS TD YPC
Patriots TEN 14 18.5 158 259 1785 10 6 6.89 44 146 3 3.32
Titans @NE 20 20.1 202 305 2278 13 6 7.47 24 100 1 4.17

As you can see here, both teams have gotten worse against stopping quarterbacks as the season progressed. The Patriots are the best on the season at stopping opposing quarterbacks from putting up big fantasy points, but they rank 14th over the second-half of the season. The Titans have stayed fairly consistent as below average in stopping quarterbacks from putting up DK points, with cornerback injuries hurting in the second half. They look to get Adoree Jackson back for this matchup.

Football Outsiders has the Patriots as the No. 1 defense in DVOA against the pass and the Titans as ranking 21st in DVOA against the pass. There’s no doubt who has had a better pass defense this season.

Running Back Stats Allowed Season/Last 8 games

(Season) Opp Rank DKP/G ATT YDS TD YPC REC YDS TD TAR YPT Catch %
(Season) Opp Rank DKP/G ATT YDS TD YPC REC YDS TD TAR YPT Catch %
Patriots TEN 1 16.3 300 1217 1 4.06 68 505 1 95 5.32 71.6
Titans @NE 20 26.1 344 1376 13 4 101 757 3 130 5.82 77.7
* * * * * * * * * * * * * *
(Last 8) Opp Rank DKP/G ATT YDS TD YPC REC YDS TD TAR YPT Catch %
Patriots TEN 3 18.1 168 674 1 4.01 34 265 1 45 5.89 75.6
Titans @NE 28 29 184 766 10 4.16 49 351 1 60 5.85 81.7

Much like against the pass, the Patriots are better against the run than the Titans are. Statistically it isn’t a question, as the Titans have given up just 16.3 DK points per game to running backs while the Titans have allowed 26.1, but they have allowed similar yards per carry and DVOA has the Patriots ranked sixth against the run and the Titans ranked 10th.

The Titans have given up the third-most receptions to running backs and rank 23rd in DVOA against running backs as receivers. The Patriots rank 21st in that department. But the Patriots have the best chance of taking advantage, as they use James White and Rex Burkhead in the passing game while Derrick Henry doesn’t get many targets and Dion Lewis isn’t used enough to take advantage.

Wide Receiver Stats Allowed Season/Last 8 games

(Season) Opp Rank DKP/G REC YDS TD TAR YPT Catch %
(Season) Opp Rank DKP/G REC YDS TD TAR YPT Catch %
Patriots TEN 1 26.2 169 2014 4 326 6.18 51.8
Titans @NE 16 35.9 205 2683 13 313 8.57 65.5
* * * * * * * * * *
(Last 8) Opp Rank DKP/G REC YDS TD TAR YPT Catch %
Patriots TEN 5 26.9 77 1076 3 137 7.85 56.2
Titans @NE 25 39.3 110 1444 7 165 8.75 66.7

The Patriots remain a tough team against wide receivers while the Titans have fallen off in the second half of the season. Injuries have hurt the Titans in the secondary, and as I mentioned, Adoree Jackson’s return will help, but the Patriots are still the superior pass defense.

Pro Football Focus has their fantasy points allowed to receivers by where they line up as:

WR Fantasy Points Allowed by position

Team Opp Left WR PPG Right WR PPG Slot WR PPG
Team Opp Left WR PPG Right WR PPG Slot WR PPG
Patriots Titans 16 11.4 17 11.5 27 21.4
Titans Patriots 2 7 4 8.4 7 15.3

The Patriots “weakest” link is to slot receivers, as they rank 7th while the Titans weakest link is to the slot receiver as well, as they rank 27th in fantasy points allowed. That looks good for Julian Edelman, if he is healthy enough to take advantage.

Tight End Stats Allowed Season/Last 8 games

(Season) Opp Rank Pts/G REC YDS TD TAR YPT Catch % DVOA
(Season) Opp Rank Pts/G REC YDS TD TAR YPT Catch % DVOA
Patriots TEN 9 10.9 64 688 6 99 6.95 64.6 7
Titans @NE 26 14.2 80 916 9 119 7.7 67.2 20
* * * * * * * * * * *
(Last 8) Opp Rank Pts/G REC YDS TD TAR YPT Catch %
Patriots TEN 28 16.1 47 463 5 72 6.43 65.3
Titans @NE 24 15.3 44 503 5 60 8.38 73.3

Tight ends have fared better against the Titans than the Patriots but New England ranks 28th in DK points allowed to the position over the last eight games. The Patriots don’t have a tight end they use enough to take advantage, but James White will likely see some similar coverage while Jonnu Smith would have the best shot for the Titans. Smith is likely going to be needed this week for Tennessee, as Stephon Gilmore and company will look to limit A.J. Brown, giving Smith some open space to roam.