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Betting against the lengthy Eagles injury report

The Eagles and Seahawks close out Wild Card weekend. Both teams are dealing with an assortment of injuries, but Philly’s report seems significantly worse given how the season has gone. Here’s why I’m laying the points.

Russell Wilson of the Seattle Seahawks looks to throw the ball in the first quarter against the San Francisco 49ers during their game at CenturyLink Field on December 29, 2019 in Seattle, Washington. Photo by Abbie Parr/Getty Images

The Philadelphia Eagles host the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday in the final Wild Card round matchup of the weekend. Every NFL team is dealing with injuries at this time of year, but Philadelphia might be more banged up than most. The public knows it as well, and has bet heavily on the Seahawks, to the point that Philly opened as a favorite and now sits as a 1.5-point underdog.

Injury report

Seahawks

The Seahawks have had a lengthy injury report, but this could have probably been a lot worse off. Jadeveon Clowney was a DNP much of the week and Quandre Diggs was limited early in the week. Both are entirely removed from the final injury report, which is big for their defense.

Out: T Duane Brown (knee, biceps), LB Mychal Kendricks (knee), WR Malik Turner (concussion)
Questionable: WR Jaron Brown (knee, personal), G Mike Iupati (neck)

Eagles

The Eagles lengthy injury report has three notable issues this week. Lane Johnson was limited on Wednesday and Thursday, but then sat out Friday’s practice. It could just be that the training staff wanted to get him some rest leading into the game, or maybe he’s on the wrong side of 50/50. Zach Ertz still has not been cleared to play, and given that he’s dealing with a lacerated kidney, it seems a decent bet he sits on Sunday.

The most intriguing question surrounds Miles Sanders and his ankle. Sanders sat Wednesday and Thursday, but then got a full session Friday and was removed from the injury report. Is he that close to 100 percent, or could he be a decoy on Sunday? This is a tough one to sort out.

Out: WR Nelson Agholor (knee)
Questionable: OT Lane Johnson (ankle), TE Zach Ertz (ribs, back)

Betting splits

The betting public is all about the road team in this one at DraftKings Sportsbook. The Eagles opened as field goal favorites, but the line swung in short order to Seahawks as high as -2 within a day of opening. 83 percent of handle and 75 percent of tickets bet on the point spread are on the Seahawks. 69 percent of handle and 62 percent of tickets bet on the money line are for the Seahawks. The betting public is split on the point total (currently 45). 52 percent of tickets bet are on the over, but 55 percent of the handle is on the under.

Pick Against the Spread

Early in the week, I was leaning Seahawks to cover at -2 and a slight lean over the then point total of 46. The line is down to 1.5 and the point total is down to 45. I’m still taking the Seahawks, but I’m leaning more toward the under now. A 24-20 or 20-16 type of score would not surprise me at all.

I hate going with the heavy public conventional wisdom, but the injuries are just too much for me. Philly might have a rocking crowd on Sunday, but the Seahawks team have been through the gauntlet and can handle this. I don’t think the Eagles can overcome the injuries against Seattle.

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