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Betting on the National Anthem vs. scoring drive time in Super Bowl 54

Demi Lovato will sing the National Anthem before Super Bowl 54, with estimates having her at around 1:59 in length. Will we see a team score faster than that?

The 2020 Super Bowl between the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers is just a few days away, and it will feature a host of different prop bets. You’ll be able to wager on the game from prior to the first whistle with the coin toss all the way to the late game Gatorade shower for the winning coach. The coin toss results prop bets will be the first to cash, but it might take long for us to get a National Anthem related prop bet to cash at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Sportsbooks in the United States are not allowed to offer a prop bet strictly on the length of the National Anthem, but it is available if they can connect it to something reflected in the box score or on the field of play. In this case, DK is offering odds on whether or not a scoring drive will take less time than the singing of the Anthem. Yes is a heavy favorite at -625, while No is a +400 underdog.

Demi Lovato is singing the National Anthem, and estimates are suggesting 1:59 makes sense for how long it will take her to sing it. It could go over or under that number, but that’s where the estimate is based on her past performances of the Anthem. Even if she goes a little over or a little under that length, we can look at scoring drives right around that mark for purposes of analyzing this prop bet.

I took a look at the past decade worth of Super Bowls to see how long the scoring drives have been. Generally there is at least one scoring drive that is less than two minutes, but last year we did not get that. There were only four scoring drives, and the fastest was 2:49.

Last year’s Super Bowl was a historically low-scoring game, and if you look at the Super Bowls over the years immediately prior, we get a better handle on what to expect. In the 2018 Super Bowl, the Patriots and Eagles combined for 14 scoring drives, and four of them came in under two minutes. In the 2017 Super Bowl, the Broncos and Panthers combined for seven scoring drives with two coming in under two minutes — although one was Malik Jackson scoring on a fumble recovery.

This game features two of the most prolific offenses in the NFL. The 49ers ranked second in total points scored, while the Chiefs ranked fifth. Football Outsiders ranks the Chiefs the third most efficient offense this season, and fifth when weighted toward the end of the season. FO ranks the 49ers seventh most efficient and eighth when weighted toward the end of the season.

What might be most notable about these two teams in regard to scoring is that the Chiefs ran the eighth fewest offensive plays in the NFL and the 49ers ran the 14th fewest. These are teams that can score on chunk plays, with the Chiefs averaging the second most yards per play on offense and the 49ers averaging the fifth most. The Chiefs do it regularly through the air, while the 49ers have been able to mix and match rushing and passing chunk plays.

There’s a reason YES is the heavy favorite in this wager. It would be a stunning upset if neither of these teams was able to get at least a quick field goal score on Sunday.

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