There are enough prop bets for Super Bowl 54 to give you a headache, so I’m going to narrow them down a bit and give you my favorite player props.
With an over/under of 54.5-points, and a line of -1.5, this game has a possibility for lots of yardage and scoring, but with the 49ers defensive capabilities, there is also room for a lower scoring affair. Determining the overall game flow is useful, but relying on individual players and their matchups is still needed. If you can get the game-script right and find some mismatches for individual players, you’ll have your best possible chance of hitting on props.
Deebo Samuel props
Anytime touchdown: +150
OVER 53.5 receiving yards: -112
First 49ers reception: +350
Samuel’s longest reception OVER 24.5 yards: -112
75+ receiving yards + touchdown: +425
I am all in on Samuel for the “big game.” He’s been primed for big numbers of late but game script has been against him. That should change this Sunday and there are weaknesses underneath in the Chiefs pass defense. Add that to Samuel turning into a running back when he has the ball, and I love most of the overs and touchdown props for him this weekend.
Damien Williams props
UNDER 50.5 rushing yards: +100
Longest rush, UNDER 13.5: -134
Total receptions, UNDER 3.5: -118
I don’t trust Williams to put up big yardage in this game. The 49ers run defense is stout and Williams hasn’t been that efficient on the ground. I expect Williams to have a rough go of it on the ground and through the air, as the 49ers are good against both when it comes to running backs. Williams hasn’t been a big play back on the ground. His long runs by game are 6, 5, 6, 6, 4, 9, 91, 15, 3, 12, 84, 26, and 8 yards. So far, in the playoffs, they’ve allowed 41.5 rushing yards to running backs per game and that included Aaron Jones and Dalvin Cook. So far this season, Williams has topped 3.5 receptions four times and once in the playoffs. And, if he were playing a different team, I’d probably be inclined to go with the over, but the 49ers are stout against receivers in the pass game. On the season, they gave up the 9th-fewest receptions, 2nd-fewest yards and zero touchdowns to receiving backs.
Jimmy Garoppolo props
OVER 240.5 passing yards: -112
OVER 29.5 pass attempts: -109
Longest completed pass, 36.5 yards: -112
Jimmy G. topped 240 yards passing nine times this season and in games that were decided by five or fewer points, he averaged 280 yards passing. We’re relying on the Chiefs to be able to keep the game close and hopefully get a lead to push Garoppolo’s pass attempts up, but that does seem like the likeliest game flow and one I’m willing to put some money on.
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