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Best Wild Card Round DFS options: Bills D/ST or Texans D/ST

The Bills D/ST was a strength for them during the regular season. Can the Texans match up for Wild Card Weekend?

Buffalo Bills defensive end Trent Murphy makes a sack on New York Jets quarterback Sam Darnold in the fourth quarter at New Era Field. Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports

In what could be one of the more underrated games of the weekend, the Bills travel to Houston to take on the Texans. This is the tale of two vastly different defenses where one was their strength and the other was their weakness. The Bills D/ST helped propel them into the playoffs and averaged 8.4 DKFP with 14 interceptions and 44 sacks. The Texans D/ST was a nightmare and has been one of their biggest detriments, averaging 5.9 DKFP with 12 interceptions and only 31 sacks.

Daily fantasy football analysis: Bills D/ST, Texans D/ST

These two teams run out such vastly different groups that the $1,000 price difference between the two is quite telling. The Bills D/ST ($4,600) are the defensive darlings in this game even though a lot of their overall numbers don’t pop out at you. However, when you consider that Deshaun Watson ($11,600) took just under three sacks per game, we got something to work with here. The Texans offensive line has been a big issue all season long and even more so when you consider how mobile Watson is. While Watson didn’t turn over the ball much during the season either, he did throw five interceptions over the last three games of the season. Keeping a strong pass rush on Watson will be key, as his completion percentage under pressure is 48.6% on 148 attempts this season. For reference, Watson had a 75.2% completion when he wasn’t.

To be completely honest, the Texans D/ST ($3,600) isn’t exactly a play I’m excited to use. However, we do have to consider that Josh Allen ($18,000) is a quarterback that is prone to making mistakes. To his credit, he cleaned it up more as the season progressed, as he threw seven interceptions through his first five games and then 13 in the remaining 11. The Texans were not a team that grabbed many interceptions and quite frankly, the majority of them came in one game against Jameis Winston and the Buccaneers. The four they had in that game accounted for 33% of their season total. The Texans also really struggled against mobile quarterbacks, as Lamar Jackson and Gardner Minshew rushed for a combined 168 yards in three games. Allen takes an average of 6.8 rush attempts per game for 31.8 yards per game.

Daily fantasy recommendation

I wish I would say that the Texans D/ST was worthy of a roster spot this week but I’m really struggling to come up with more reasons than “Well, Allen could throw an interception in this game.” Aside from that, this is such a great spot for the Bills D/ST and quite frankly, they’re the only ones worth using in this game. Don’t try to overthink it.