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Early AFC Divisional round line movement could offer some value

The AFC Divisional round is set, and we’re starting to see some line movement a day later. We break down what it might mean.

Quarterbacks Lamar Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens and Deshaun Watson of the Houston Texans embrace following the Ravens win at M&T Bank Stadium on November 17, 2019 in Baltimore, Maryland. Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images

The AFC Divisional round matchups were set Saturday evening and point spreads soon followed. In the nine hours since the close of Titans-Patriots, we’ve seen some modest early movement at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Titans @ Ravens (-9.5, 48)

The Ravens opened as ten point favorites, but the line has come down half a point overnight. The point total opened at 48 and has remained there. Derrick Henry dominated the Patriots sixth-ranked run defense, and now gets to face a Ravens run defense that Football Outsiders ranks 19th in efficiency. Ten points was a lot to lay for a playoff game, so it’s no surprise that was quickly brought into single digits. If you think Lamar Jackson and company can dominate this one, value could be growing.

Texans @ Chiefs (-8, 49)

The Chiefs opened as a 7.5-point favorite and that line has grown half a point overnight. The point total opened at 49.5 and has come down half a point. These two faced off in Kansas City back in Week 6, which Houston won 31-24. Even if we don’t see a repeat, would we see a 15-point swing? There might be some Texans value here.

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