We’re done with Wild Card weekend and the Divisional Round is approaching. The next installment of playoff football brings a new four-game DFS slate. Some quarterbacks in the Divisional Round are worth their price tags, but others might not be. We broke down what signal callers in this weekend’s slate could be overvalued.
DeShaun Watson, Houston Texans ($6,700)
Watson is coming off a huge performance against a solid Buffalo Bills defense. He faces a Kansas City Chiefs defense that has struggled at times and currently ranks 18th against quarterbacks. It could be a shootout given the Texans own struggles on defense. And yet, you might be better suited finding value elsewhere.
Watson is going to be a popular pick coming in $1,700 less than Lamar Jackson and $800 less than Patrick Mahomes. He scored 29.38 DKFP last week against the Bills, thanks in large part to 55 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown. The Chiefs defense has improved of late, and it could cost him. Look for him to be a sufficiently popular pick that you’ll need to decide if you want to get the points a lot of other folks are getting, or if you want to go against the trend.
Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings ($5,700)
Cousins overcame the belief that he can’t win big games by topping the New Orleans Saints in the Wild Card round, but that just change the fact that he put up below average numbers in the win. Cousins threw for 232 passing yards and a score, totaling 13.6 DKFP. That’s down from his average from 17.4. In fact, he hasn’t surpassed 17.7 DKFP since Week 13. It seems unlikely that he’ll break out of this slump against his next opponent
Cousins will now face the San Francisco 49ers’ well-rounded defensive unit next, and it should prove to be a challenge. San Francisco’s defense ranks second in the NFL according to Football Outsiders’ adjusted sack rate (9.1%) metric, and only trailed the Pittsburgh Steelers (9.7%) in 2019. This helped the 49ers give up fewer passing yards than any other team this season. Minnesota still has a star running back in Dalvin Cook, who couldn’t be contained by New Orleans sturdy front line. But this doesn’t look like an ideal matchup for Cousins.