Week 21 Update
We’ve got a few more teams added to the loser column for this week. The Trail Blazers, Spurs and Pistons all took the L by not hitting their preseason win total over. The Blazers and Spurs are still in the playoff chase for the 8-seed in the West. The Pistons haven’t been in any type of chase all season long basically. The Timberwolves are closing in on their UNDER of 35.5, just three losses away.
The Mavericks can their OVER with two wins this week and the Raptors are one win away from hitting their mark of 47 wins. We should have much more action in the Week 22 update, stayed tuned.
Week 20 Update
We don’t have any new teams win or lose their win total over/under for the season in the past few weeks. As it stands, the Thunder and Grizzlies have hit over and the Warriors are unable to hit their win total.
The Timberwolves’ magic number is at 5 games. They can only reach 40 potential wins on the season and their over/under was set at 35.5 wins. D’Angelo Russell has looked good in Minnesota, but it doesn’t appear Karl-Anthony Towns will get back in the lineup to save the T-Wolves’ season.
The Bucks, Mavericks, Raptors and Heat are all at 90% or higher in terms of reaching their win total. Chances are all of those teams will hit the OVER in a week or two, well before the end of the regular season.
Week 18 Update
The Oklahoma City Thunder joined the Memphis Grizzlies as the only two teams to hit their win total OVER on the season so far. The Thunder sit at 33-22 and sit as the No. 6 seed in the West at the All-Star Break. A few teams to monitor as we head into the stretch run towards the playoffs. The Raptors and Bucks are No. 1 and 2 in the East and are closing in on their totals at 46.5 and 56.5, respectively. Milwaukee obviously has some more work to do, but at 46 wins, isn’t too far off. A few notable teams clawing to make it to their total include the Portland Trail Blazers and Brooklyn Nets. The Blazers are 25-31 and need to hit 47 wins, while the Nets are 25-28 and have to reach 45 to get to the over.
Week 17 Update
The Memphis Grizzlies are the first team to hit their win total preseason O/U in 2019-20. The Grizzlies picked up their 27th win of the season on Sunday against the Washington Wizards, hitting the OVER of 26.5. Memphis’ success can mostly be credited to rookie PG Ja Morant, who is on pace to run away with Rookie of the Year. Morant had 27 points and 10 assists in the win over Washington, averaging 17.6 points and 7.0 assists on the season with a 18.4 PER.
The Oklahoma City Thunder are next up to hit their win total of 32.5, sitting at 32 wins entering Tuesday vs. the San Antonio Spurs. After that, it’s the Toronto Raptors, currently on a ridiculous stretch of 15 straight wins, which has them at 40-14 on the season, just seven victories away from hitting the OVER of 46.5.
Week 16 Update
The NBA Trade Deadline is coming up and we already had an impactful deal that could alter win totals for a few teams. The Hawks, Rockets, Nuggets and Timberwolves were involved in a four-team deal centered around Clint Capela to Atlanta and Robert Covington to Houston. If we look at both those teams in terms of win total, the Hawks are 13-38 and 39% of the way to their total of 33.5. They’d need to finish 21-10 the rest of the season in order to hit the OVER. It’d be a stretch, but is possible if Capela meshes well with Trae Young and John Collins.
The Rockets are at 31-18 and need to reach 54 wins to hit the OVER for their preseason total. Covington should shore up things on the defensive side on the perimeter, which should help the Rockets pick up a few more wins. It’ll be tough for Houston to get to 54 wins, but the move for RoCo certainly helps things. The Rockets, despite what was said to the media, never really viewed Capela as a fit in their system.
Week 15 Update
The Thunder and Grizzlies continue to climb toward hitting their preseason win totals. They are the only teams above 80% of the way to their total and should clear the mark pretty easily in the next few weeks. Both teams need just 5 wins to reach the OVER.
Among the teams in danger of not reaching the OVER include the Spurs and Nets, both teams picked to win over 44.5 games this season. The Spurs will need to finish the season 27-9 — which is quite a stretch. The Nets need to go 26-11 in order to hit their OVER of 45 wins. The way things are going, I can’t see either team cashing in there.
Week 14 Update
The Golden State Warriors won’t be hitting their OVER for the preseason win total of 47.5. It’s the first loss for any team in the Preseason W/L category this season. The Warriors are 10-35 and there are only 37 games left on their schedule, good enough to get them to 47 wins if they miraculously won out this season. Obviously the injuries to Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson, coupled with the departure of Kevin Durant played a huge role in the Dubs’ fall from grace. Even so, Draymond Green and D’Angelo Russell wasn’t enough to keep them afloat while Curry rehabs.
As far as teams in the upper half of the percentile towards hitting the OVER, the Grizzlies and Thunder are fast approaching. Memphis only needs seven wins to hit the OVER of 26.5. The Thunder need eight in order to go above 32.5 wins set out during the preseason. Both teams are in very good shape to hit those numbers. The Hornets’ pace has slowed a bit, but a few other top teams — the Bucks and Lakers — are on pace to hit their OVER totals, which were the among the top 5 highest in preseason.
Week 13 Update
As you can see by the updated table below, we have a host of teams now up over 60% of the way toward hitting their win total on the season. The Thunder are the only team in the 70% range, on pace to shatter their expected win total of 32.5 set during the preseason. OKC needs 10 wins to hit the OVER, but if you take a look at the Thunder’s upcoming schedule they may not get there just yet. OKC’s next four games are relatively tough: vs. TOR, vs. MIA, vs. POR, @ HOU. After that it’s get a bit easier with @ ORL, vs. ATL, @ MIN and vs. DAL. I’d project the Thunder to get there sometime in February.
A few surprising teams who are struggling a bit are the 76ers and Clippers. Philly is just 46% of the way to its OVER of 54.5 wins at 25-16. The Sixers won’t have an easy time competing with top teams in the East and are now down Joel Embiid for at least through this week. Considering we’re halfway through the season essentially and they are still just 46% of the way to the OVER, the UNDER is very much in play here.
The Clips have played 40 games and are 27-13, but were tied with the Bucks for the highest preseason win total at 56.5. Similar to the Sixers, it may be tough for L.A. to hit the OVER given they’re only 48% of the way there and are slightly behind schedule. Paul George’s injury will be key, plus we know Kawhi Leonard will sit back-to-backs.
With the season almost halfway done, we’ll be tracking win total betting results for the 2019-2020 NBA season. Below is a table provided by DraftKings Sportsbook that highlights how close each team is to hitting the OVER for preseason win totals so far this season. The table is sorted by which teams are the highest percentage of the way to reaching their total.
There are three teams already 60% or better of the way to hitting the OVER: the Hornets, Thunder and Heat. Many believed Charlotte would be one of the worst teams in the NBA, but now they’re potentially going to make the playoffs in the Eastern Conference. After trading Russell Westbrook and Paul George this offseason, OKC wasn’t viewed as a contender. But Chris Paul, Shai-Gilgeous Alexander, Dennis Schroder and Danilo Gallinari have formed a balanced unit that is strong defensively. Same goes for the Heat, who added Jimmy Butler this offseason and are thriving with the emergence of Bam Adebayo as a potential All-Star candidate.
NBA Win Total Tracker 2019-20
|Team||Wins||Losses||O/U (preseason)||% there||Max Wins||Preseason W/L|
|Team||Wins||Losses||O/U (preseason)||% there||Max Wins||Preseason W/L|
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