Minnesota is coming off of an incredible victory after opening as an eight point underdog against the Saints. The Vikings ended the regular season ranking seventh in Football Outsiders defensive DVOA, and 10th in offensive DVOA. They were clearly being undervalued by both the public and the betting market. But can they pull yet another upset? Despite finishing the regular season 10-6, Minnesota does not have a terribly large sample of success against top opponents. They lost to the Packers twice, who are the second seed in the NFC, the AFC’s second-seeded Chiefs, and NFC-advancee Seattle. In fact, the only playoff team they beat all year was the Eagles. That paints the Vikings in a negative light when it comes to a potential playoff run.
The 49ers have been positively dominant this season, particularly on defense, where they rank second in DVOA on the year. Only the Patriots allowed less adjusted net yards per pass attempt this season than the Niners. Offensively, they rank seventh in DVOA, eighth in adjusted net yards per pass attempt, and second in rushing yards. This is truly a complete team, whose only losses came against the AFC’s top-seeded Ravens, division-rival Seattle, and the Falcons. San Francisco completely dominated the same Packer team that beat the Vikings twice, eviscerating them to a 37-8 final score.
Vikings at 49ers
Point Spread: Vikings +7
Total Points: 44.5
Money Line: 49ers -335; Vikings +280
Overall: Vikings 11-6; 49ers 13-3
ATS: Vikings 10-7; 49ers 10-6
O/U: Vikings 9-8; 49ers 8-7-1
Players to watch: DT Linval Joseph (knee), S Jayron Kearse (toe, knee)
Players to watch: DE Dee Ford (quadricep, hamstring), OL Mike Person (knee), DL Kentavius Street (knee)
- The 49ers have won four of their last five games against teams that held a winning record.
- The Vikings have covered the spread in each of their last six day games against NFC opponents.
- Five of the 49ers’ last six home games have gone OVER the total points line.
- Deebo Samuel has scored a touchdown in three of the 49ers’ last four games as favorites.
- Raheem Mostert has scored at least one touchdown in each of the 49ers’ last six games.
- Dalvin Cook has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Vikings’ last six games as road underdogs.
- Kyle Rudolph has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Vikings’ last four road games against NFC opponents.
- Stefon Diggs has scored at least one touchdown in five of the Vikings’ last six games following a road win.
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