The Seattle Seahawks just had what had to be one of the least-inspiring playoff victories in a while. Despite knocking Eagles’ quarterback Carson Wentz out of the game early on, and spending most of the contest facing Josh McCown, Seattle was only able to eek out a 17-9 victory. Offensively, this is a team to fear. They rank fifth in Football Outsiders offensive DVOA, and top six in both the run and pass game. The run game could be a particular source of advantage in this matchup given that Green Bay ranks 23rd in run defense by DVOA. Defensively, Seattle is not as strong, finishing the season ranked 18th, including 26th against the run. This could very quickly become a low-scoring, grind-it-out kind of game on the ground given the sources of weakness on each defense.
The Green Bay Packers are the second-seed in the NFC, but there are certainly reasons to believe they are not as good as their record says. Primarily, their Pythagorean win expectation, which is based on points for and points against, only amounts to 10 wins. With that said, it is worth noting that Seattle may be equally as fraudulent, with a Pythagorean win expectation of just 8.2 wins. Green Bay finished the year ranked eighth in offensive DVOA, and 15th on defense. Aaron Rodgers is coming off of perhaps the worst season of his career. He set a career-low in QBR, and finished only 11th this season in adjusted net yards per pass attempt. Green Bay will need much better play out of him to make a deep run in the playoffs.
Point Spread: Seahawks +4
Total Points: 46.5
Money Line: Packers -195; Seahawks +170
Overall: Seahawks 12-5; Packers 13-3
ATS: Seahawks 8-8-1; Packers 10-6
O/U: Seahawks 8-8-1; Packers 6-10
Players to watch: OT Duane Brown (knee), OG Mike Iupati (neck), OT George Fant (groin), C Joey Hunt (fibula), DT Quinton Jefferson (ankle), DE Ziggy Ansah (neck), WR Malik Turner (concussion), WR Jaron Brown (knee), DE Jadeveon Clowney (core), LB Dekoda Watson (calf), LB Cody Barton (hip), DT Jarran Reed (biceps)
Players to watch: DT Kenny Clark (back), TE Jimmy Graham (wrist, not injury related), RB Dexter Williams (illness), TE Marcedes Lewis (not injury related), LB Preston Smith (ankle), G Billy Turner (ankle), RB Dan Vitale (knee), T Bryan Bulaga (concussion, not injury related), LB Rashan Gary (shoulder), WR Allen Lazard (ankle), C Corey Linsley (back), LB Blake Martinez (hand), S Will Redmond (hamstring), RB Jamaal Williams (shoulder)
- The Packers have won each of their last six home games against teams that held a winning record.
- The Seahawks have covered the spread in 10 of their last 12 games as underdogs.
- Seven of the Packers’ last eight games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Aaron Jones has scored at least one touchdown in each of his last 10 Sunday appearances at Lambeau Field.
- Davante Adams has scored at least one touchdown in each of his last seven Sunday night appearances.
- D.K. Metcalf has scored a touchdown in three of his last four appearances.
- Marshawn Lynch has scored at least one touchdown in eight of his last 10 appearances in postseason games.
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