clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

Superbowl 54 betting trends and a long shot MVP candidate that could help you win big

Would it be too risky to put money on the Seahawks to go all the way? A large percentage of people seem to think it’s worth it.

Seattle Seahawks running back Marshawn Lynch scores a touchdown against the Philadelphia Eagles during the second quarter in a NFC Wild Card playoff football game at Lincoln Financial Field Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

As the odds roll in the week before the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs, the Baltimore Ravens are the clear favorite to win Super Bowl 54 at +200. Behind them are the San Francisco 49ers (+325), followed by the Kansas City Chiefs (+350). Beyond that, there is a fairly significant drop off with the Green Bay Packers coming in at +800 and the Seattle Seahawks at +1200.

With the fifth highest odds to win the Superbowl, 13 percent of bets at DraftKings Sportsbook since the end of the Wild Card round have been placed on the Seahawks, which is more than the Packers (10 percent) and 49ers (11 percent). A lack of confidence in the top two seeds in the NFC East is understandable, as both the 49ers and Packers have shown weaknesses at various points throughout the season. Given recent inconsistencies in play and the unpredictable nature of the NFL playoffs, it is not crazy to think that each of these teams is capable of falling to a team like the Seahawks.

Super Bowl 54 MVP odds

Going further, we break things down and look at odds on an individual player level. Quarterbacks currently hold the top six spots in Super Bowl MVP odds. Lamar Jackson (+250), Patrick Mahomes (+500), and Jimmy Garoppolo (+550) in the top tier. Aaron Rodgers (+1100), Russell Wilson (+1600), and Kirk Cousins (+2000) are the next tier. DeShaun Watson and Ryan Tannehill (both +400) are in the final tier of quarterbacks.

DraftKings Sportsbook released the latest round of betting splits, focusing on bets placed since the end of the Wild Card round. 60 percent of the handle since Sunday has been on quarterbacks, with Patrick Mahomes topping the list at 23 percent, followed by Lamar Jackson at 21 percent. The quarterback of the winning team has won the Super Bowl MVP award in 65 percent of the last 20 Super Bowls, so it makes sense QBs would top the list.

Despite bettors apparent confidence in the Seahawks overall odds, they appear to feel less optimistic about Russell Wilson’s performance, as only four percent of bets and four percent of the handle have been placed on Wilson at this time. Surprisingly, three percent of the handle has been placed on a long shot for Super Bowl MVP, Marshawn Lynch. Lynch did not wear an NFL uniform until Week 17 of the regular season, but has managed to score a touchdown in each of the two games he has played in since his return. He heads into the Divisional Round of the playoffs with his odds set at +15000.

Lynch’s role seems to be increasing each week, and if the Seahawks can manage the improbable and reach Super Bowl 54, Lynch may be back to his old workhorse role in the offense by that time. It’s certainly a long shot, as the odds will tell you, but it’s an interesting scenario to contemplate, and one that could payoff tremendously if you’re willing to take the risk.

Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ/WV/PA) or 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN) or 1-800-522-4700 (NH). NH/NJ/WV/IN/PA only. 21+ (18+ NH). Eligibility Restrictions Apply. See website for details.