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Why you should take New York ATS in Jets vs. Broncos on TNF

One team will get their first win of the season. Will it be the Jets or Broncos? We take a closer look.

Avery Williamson #54 of the New York Jets reacts after sacking Matt Ryan #2 of the Atlanta Falcons during the first half of a preseason game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on August 15, 2019 in Atlanta, Georgia. Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

The last NFL game we collectively watched was the Chiefs and Ravens on Monday night. This game won’t have the talent we ooo’d and aww’d over on Monday. It may elicit similar sounds, but edged with repulsion or sadness. In a game with so few players to rely on for offense, projecting game flow is going to be tough, as there won’t be much fluidity.

The Denver Broncos are road favorites in this matchup, as they are favored by 1-point and the total is set at 39.5 points at DraftKings Sportsbook.

ATS Pick: Jets

If we look at the quarterback position, Sam Darnold is better than Jeff Driskel and Brett Rypien, but in the Jets offense, it’s sometimes hard to tell. The good news for the Jets is they could get Jamison Crowder back for this game while rookie left tackle Mekhi Becton might not miss any time with his shoulder injury.

The Broncos could get Phillip Lindsay back, while Brett Rypien was named the starter over Jeff Driskel with Drew Lock still on the mend. This will be Rypien’s first start of his career. Denver also lost defensive tackle Jurrell Casey and right tackle Elijah Wilkerson, who was starting in place for Ja’Wuan James who opted out. All in all, the Broncos have 24 players injured right now.

The Broncos offensive line ranks dead last in pass and run blocking win rate and have allowed 13 sacks in two games. Rypien is not a running quarterback and will likely try to win with short, quick passes to compliment a heavy run game.

The Jets defense has been awful though, as they have given up 31.3 points per game to the Bills, 49ers and Colts while the Broncos have allowed 23.3 points per game to the Titans, Steelers and Buccaneers. But there is a glimmer of hope, as Football Outsiders has taken a deeper look at their run defense and have them at third overall against the run using DVOA. It’s still early, so that number could rise with more games, but they are likely better than the points they’ve allowed.

If they can take advantage of a poor Denver offensive line and slow down Melvin Gordon and Phillip Lindsay (if he plays) and pressure the quarterback, then they will be in a good place, as Rypien isn’t going to be able to consistently hurt them through the air.

Picking the Jets for anything other than a dumpster fire franchise of the year award is fraught with peril, but they are getting this Broncos team at the right time.

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