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We’re nearing the halfway point of one of the wildest NFL seasons in recent memory. Not only is the schedule constantly being shuffled around, teams are scoring points like never before. The unpredictability has made for especially fun times at the betting window. Here are three of the most interesting betting splits for Week 6 at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Expect the Falcons to bounce back this week
The Atlanta Falcons will play their first game since 2015 without head coach Dan Quinn on the sidelines. Last week’s loss to the Carolina Panthers proved to be the final straw in the team’s 0-5 start to the season. They’ve got a road date against the Minnesota Vikings this week, a game that’s expected to be a shootout—the over/under is 54 points—since both teams have loads of offense and not much in the way of defense. But the most interesting bet here is the spread; the Vikings are 4-point favorites.
Bettors are putting 87 percent of the handle and 79 percent of their wagers on Vikings. Atlanta is 1-4 against the spread the season; Minnesota is 3-2. The X-factor here is the coaching change. After last week’s victory by the Texans, in their first game after firing Bill O’Brien, teams are 15-14 against the spread since 2003 following an in-season coaching change. That may not look like huge advantage, but when you consider those teams were winning against the spread less than 40 percent of the time before dumping their coaches, it’s significant enough to merit some betting attention.
Are we underestimating Tom Brady and the Buccaneers?
The Packers are narrow favorites (-1) to win this Sunday’s showdown with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Bettors are flocking to Aaron Rodgers’ side in this one too, laying 95 percent of the handle and 90 percent of bets on point spread wagers. The over/under of 55.5 is attracting similar numbers—96 percent of the handle and 90 percent of bets on the over, which seems obvious. The moneyline is where it gets more interesting. The favorite, Green Bay, is still drawing most of the money and bets, but at a slightly smaller rate than the other lines here, 82 percent of the handle and 78 percent of bets.
Tampa Bay is dealing with some injuries to its offensive skill players, but most seem likely to play this week, including Leonard Fournette and Mike Evans (Chris Godwin looks like the biggest question mark). Brady has six touchdowns and two picks at home this season, averaging nearly 300 yards in just two home games. Both of these teams have seen outstanding defensive play, but the Packers are giving up an average of 4.8 yards per rushing attempt, another factor that could play into Tampa’s favor. This game looks like a toss up, with bettors leaning heavily on the Packers, but a wager on Brady and the Bucs here could pay dividends.
A shootout in Jacksonville
You expect a shootout when Brady and Rodgers face off, or even in Monday’s Chiefs-Bills game, but a sneaky pick for another high-scoring affair is Sunday’s matchup between the Detroit Lions and Jacksonville Jaguars.
The Lions are allowing an average of nearly 32 points per game. They’re giving up a league-worst 170 yards per game on the ground, which should be especially advantageous for Jaguars running back James Robinson and a team that prefers to run the ball. Against the pass, the Lions are just average, still having surrendered nine passing touchdowns in just four games. The Jags defense isn’t much better, giving up 6.6 yards per play, worst in the NFL.
The over/under on this one is at 54.5. However, most of the action—52 percent of the handle and 56 percent of bets—are on the under. If there’s one consistent theme to the 2020 NFL season, besides COVID, it’s always take the over.
2020 NFL betting splits, Week 6 Friday
| Teams | Point Spread | % Handle | % Bets | Total Points | % Handle | % Bets | Moneyline | % Handle | % Bets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teams | Point Spread | % Handle | % Bets | Total Points | % Handle | % Bets | Moneyline | % Handle | % Bets |
| ATL Falcons | +4 | 13% | 21% | Over 54.0 | 42% | 64% | +175 | 28% | 27% |
| MIN Vikings | -4 | 87% | 79% | Under 54.0 | 58% | 36% | -200 | 72% | 73% |
| BAL Ravens | -8 | 80% | 75% | Over 47.5 | 90% | 88% | -345 | 84% | 90% |
| PHI Eagles | +8 | 20% | 25% | Under 47.5 | 10% | 12% | +295 | 16% | 10% |
| CHI Bears | +1 | 64% | 66% | Over 44.5 | 67% | 81% | +100 | 86% | 75% |
| CAR Panthers | -1 | 36% | 34% | Under 44.5 | 33% | 19% | -114 | 14% | 25% |
| CIN Bengals | 0 | 0% | 0% | Over | 44% | 57% | +300 | 23% | 17% |
| IND Colts | 0 | 0% | 0% | Under | 56% | 43% | -360 | 77% | 83% |
| CLE Browns | +3.5 | 45% | 50% | Over 50.5 | 92% | 84% | +165 | 58% | 45% |
| PIT Steelers | -3.5 | 55% | 50% | Under 50.5 | 8% | 16% | -190 | 42% | 55% |
| DEN Broncos | +9.5 | 31% | 46% | Over 45.0 | 44% | 52% | +335 | 14% | 9% |
| NE Patriots | -9.5 | 69% | 54% | Under 45.0 | 56% | 48% | -400 | 86% | 91% |
| DET Lions | -3.5 | 99% | 74% | Over 54.5 | 48% | 44% | -180 | 60% | 63% |
| JAX Jaguars | +3.5 | 1% | 26% | Under 54.5 | 52% | 56% | +155 | 40% | 37% |
| HOU Texans | +3.5 | 8% | 9% | Over 53.0 | 46% | 71% | +163 | 12% | 18% |
| TEN Titans | -3.5 | 92% | 91% | Under 53.0 | 54% | 29% | -186 | 88% | 82% |
| WAS Football Team | +2.5 | 74% | 69% | Over 43.0 | 55% | 75% | +130 | 54% | 52% |
| NY Giants | -2.5 | 26% | 31% | Under 43.0 | 45% | 25% | -148 | 46% | 48% |
| NY Jets | +9.5 | 9% | 20% | Over 47.0 | 54% | 66% | +335 | 16% | 9% |
| MIA Dolphins | -9.5 | 91% | 80% | Under 47.0 | 46% | 34% | -400 | 84% | 91% |
| GB Packers | -1 | 95% | 90% | Over 55.5 | 96% | 90% | -114 | 82% | 78% |
| TB Buccaneers | +1 | 5% | 10% | Under 55.5 | 4% | 10% | +100 | 18% | 22% |
| LA Rams | -3 | 85% | 84% | Over 52.0 | 82% | 65% | -167 | 87% | 83% |
| SF 49ers | +3 | 15% | 16% | Under 52.0 | 18% | 35% | +148 | 13% | 17% |
| LA Rams | -3 | 85% | 84% | Over 52.0 | 82% | 65% | -167 | 87% | 83% |
| SF 49ers | +3 | 15% | 16% | Under 52.0 | 18% | 35% | +148 | 13% | 17% |
| KC Chiefs | -4 | 99% | 93% | Over 57.5 | 66% | 74% | -220 | 87% | 87% |
| BUF Bills | +4 | 1% | 7% | Under 57.5 | 34% | 26% | +190 | 13% | 13% |
| ARI Cardinals | -1 | 48% | 70% | Over 54.5 | 88% | 76% | -114 | 53% | 54% |
| DAL Cowboys | +1 | 52% | 30% | Under 54.5 | 12% | 24% | +100 | 47% | 46% |
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