UPDATE: Meyers Leonard and Tyler Herro will start in place if Dragic and Adebayo in Game 2 vs. the Lakers.
Miami Heat PG Goran Dragic and C Bam Adebayo have both been ruled out for Game 2 of the 2020 NBA Finals against the Los Angeles Lakers on Friday night. Dragic and Adebayo were injured in Game 1, a 116-98 loss to the Lakers. Dragic has a tear in his plantar fascia and Adebayo has a shoulder strain. Both were considered doubtful to play heading into the game.
With Dragic and Adebayo out, we should see Kelly Olynyk ($3,000) and Tyler Herro ($8,600) slot into the starting lineup. Herro had been the 6th man off the bench for the Heat, providing instant offense. Olynyk hasn’t played much in the postseason with Miami going with a seven-man rotation. Aside from those two, we should see additional minutes for Kendrick Nunn ($5,000) and Solomon Hill ($2,600).
Olynyk and Hill are your clear value plays in this scenario. Kelly O would have to start and play around 20-30 minutes in place of Adebayo. The issue with Olynyk is having to guard Anthony Davis and Dwight Howard, maybe even LeBron James at times. Olynyk could end up in foul trouble. Still, he’s got a pretty decent ceiling from watching him in the seeding round. Olynyk also played well in 18 minutes in Game 1 in garbage time, racking up 19.75 DKFP.
Really, the biggest beneficiary of the injuries in DFS is Jimmy Butler ($9,800), who will have to put the team on his back for Miami to avoid going down 2-0. Butler’s usage should be through the roof with no Dragic. Jimmy will essentially be a PG/SF hybrid. This should lead to more offense and more assists. He’ll be trendy at Captain at $14,700, but has a very high ceiling. If I were looking for a contrarian play at Captain, Herro ($12,900) or Nunn ($7,500) stick out.
The betting lines before the injury news were at Lakers -9.5 on the spread. The O/U went up a point to 217 and could drop down a bit with Bam and Dragic officially out. The ML swung to Lakers -500, so there really isn’t any value in that number. The Heat at +390 seems like a trap, but when are we going to get this type of juice on an underdog in the NBA Finals? Probably not often. I don’t see a scenario where the Heat come back down 2-0 while dealing with all these injuries, so tonight is the night to shock the world.
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